IND @ CLV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 17 slate
IND Colts
19
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
IND52%19
CLV48%18
18
CLV Browns

Projected Team Stats

IND
CLV
52% Win Probability 48%
290 Total Yards 305
200 Passing Yards 210
90 Rushing Yards 95
3.0 Sacks 1.7
1.5 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

IND
PASS Daniel Jones211 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor56 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Josh Downs4.5 rec, 54 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tyler Warren4.4 rec, 48 yds, 0.4 TD
CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson228 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins49 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Denzel Boston5.8 rec, 93 yds, 0.4 TD
REC KC Concepcion3.7 rec, 39 yds, 0.2 TD

Colts by 0.7

Run it 50 times and Colts win 52% of them, by 0.7 on average (19-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Maliek Collins (Browns) vs Tanor Bortolini (Colts) - winner: Maliek Collins, winning 57% of reps for 2.0 sacks and 1.0 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • The Colts may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.1 sacks a game (JT Tuimoloau (2.0 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Colts' quarterback should have time; the Browns win just 51% of reps for 3.6 sacks a game, led by Jared Verse (0.7 sacks, 5.4 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Josh Downs should find soft spots all day, open 61% of the time for 41 yds a game.
  • Look for Denzel Boston to eat: 6.9 catches and 70 yds a game for the Browns.
  • Denzel Ward (Browns) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 36% of routes — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Colts' run game leans on Jonathan Taylor — 13 carries, 56 yds a game (4.2 a carry), with the holes opening off right tackle.
  • The Browns' run game leans on Quinshon Judkins — 12 carries, 49 yds a game (3.9 a carry), finding room to the right side.

Model vs Market

IND by 0.7 (52% to win) Projected total 38 pts Deshaun Watson ~228 pass yds (250+ 28%) Jonathan Taylor ~56 rush yds (70+ 22%) Denzel Boston ~93 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 70%)