IND @ CLV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 17 slate
IND Colts
21
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
IND74%21
CLV26%12
12
CLV Browns
BET VALUE
Lean IND -1.5 +7.6 pts
MARKET IND -1.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

IND
CLV
74% Win Probability 26%
340 Total Yards 230
209 Passing Yards 149
131 Rushing Yards 81
2.9 Sacks 1.8
1.5 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

IND
PASS Daniel Jones208 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor91 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Alec Pierce4.6 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tyler Warren4.8 rec, 55 yds, 0.5 TD
CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson171 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins47 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Denzel Boston3.6 rec, 45 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jerry Jeudy3.4 rec, 36 yds, 0.1 TD

Colts by 9.1

The sim sides with Colts: a 9.1-point edge and a 74% win rate over 50 runs (21-12).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Ronnie Hickman Jr. (Browns) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 6.1 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Sauce Gardner (Colts) - winner: Sauce Gardner, holding him to 22 yds on just 31% open, 1.0 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Alec Pierce (Colts) vs Tyson Campbell (Browns) - winner: Alec Pierce, open on 60% of routes for 5.6/7.9, 59 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
  • The Browns' line should hold up: the Colts win just 49% of their reps, mustering 5.4 sacks and 26.8 pressures a game (Laiatu Latu (2.8 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Browns get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (3.4 sacks a game), Jared Verse (1.2 sacks, 5.7 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Alec Pierce headlines the Colts' receiving corps — 5.6 catches for 59 yds a game on 60% separation.
  • Jerry Jeudy headlines the Browns' receiving corps — 3.3 catches for 22 yds a game on 31% separation.
  • Sauce Gardner (Colts) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 31% of routes with 1.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Jonathan Taylor: 91 yds a game at 6.1 a carry for the Colts, churning off the right edge.
  • The Browns lean on Quinshon Judkins, 13 carries for 47 yds a game at 3.7 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineIND -9.1
Market lineIND -1.5
Sim total33
Market total43.5
IND by 9.1 (74% to win) Projected total 33 pts Daniel Jones ~208 pass yds (250+ 30%) Jonathan Taylor ~91 rush yds (70+ 70%) Alec Pierce ~74 rec yds, 4.6 rec (70+ 58%)