IND @ HST Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 11 slate
IND Colts
19
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
IND38%19
HST62%23
23
HST Texans
BET VALUE
MARKET HST -5.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

IND
HST
38% Win Probability 62%
322 Total Yards 342
217 Passing Yards 234
105 Rushing Yards 108
2.6 Sacks 2.7
1.7 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

IND
PASS Daniel Jones228 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor69 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Alec Pierce5.7 rec, 81 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tyler Warren4.7 rec, 47 yds, 0.4 TD
HST
PASS C.J. Stroud241 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH David Montgomery57 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Nico Collins5.7 rec, 81 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jayden Higgins3.5 rec, 43 yds, 0.4 TD

Texans by 3.2

Texans are the pick here, favoured by 3.2 and winning 62% of 50 sims (projected 23-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Bernhard Raimann (Colts) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 56% of reps for 3.8 sacks and 8.7 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Jalen Pitre (Texans) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 4.8 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Texans — a 51% win rate yields only 5.6 sacks and 20.7 pressures a game, with Will Anderson Jr. (3.8 sacks, 8.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Colts — a 51% win rate, 4.8 sacks and 23.4 pressures a game — Laiatu Latu (3.3 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Texans lean on Nico Collins, good for 7.1 catches and 63 yds a game while breaking open on 52% of his routes.
  • Through the air it is Alec Pierce's show for the Colts: 55 yds a game, open on 46% of routes.
  • Few balls get past Derek Stingley Jr. (Texans), who yields separation on 35% of routes, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Texans lean on David Montgomery, 14 carries for 57 yds a game at 4.1 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side.
  • The Colts' run game leans on Jonathan Taylor — 14 carries, 69 yds a game (4.8 a carry), doing his damage to the right side and moving the chains.

Model vs Market

Sim lineHST -3.2
Market lineHST -5.5
Sim total42
Market total45.5
HST by 3.2 (62% to win) Projected total 42 pts C.J. Stroud ~241 pass yds (250+ 44%) Jonathan Taylor ~69 rush yds (70+ 38%) Nico Collins ~81 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 64%)