IND @ HST Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 11 slate
IND Colts
18
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
IND28%18
HST72%26
26
HST Texans

Projected Team Stats

IND
HST
28% Win Probability 72%
302 Total Yards 393
211 Passing Yards 287
90 Rushing Yards 106
2.4 Sacks 2.4
1.5 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

IND
PASS Daniel Jones225 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor55 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Josh Downs4.5 rec, 56 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tyler Warren4.7 rec, 48 yds, 0.3 TD
HST
PASS C.J. Stroud293 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH David Montgomery54 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Nico Collins6.0 rec, 90 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.3.4 rec, 50 yds, 0.2 TD

Texans by 7.3

Texans are the pick here, favoured by 7.3 and winning 72% of 50 sims (projected 26-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Adetomiwa Adebawore (Colts) vs Ed Ingram (Texans) - winner: Adetomiwa Adebawore, winning 57% of reps for 1.2 sacks and 4.4 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Nico Collins (Texans) vs Charvarius Ward (Colts) - winner: Nico Collins, open on 59% of routes for 8.2/9.8, 80 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
  • DeForest Buckner (Colts) vs Keylan Rutledge (Texans) - winner: DeForest Buckner, winning 56% of reps for 0.1 sacks and 2.0 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
In the Trenches
  • The Texans may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 4.7 sacks a game, and Will Anderson Jr. (3.3 sacks, 8.7 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Texans' quarterback should have time; the Colts win just 52% of reps for 4.5 sacks a game, Laiatu Latu (1.4 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • The Texans' aerial attack runs through Nico Collins (80 yds a game, open on 59% of routes).
  • Josh Downs headlines the Colts' receiving corps — 5.6 catches for 42 yds a game on 60% separation.
  • In coverage, Jalen Pitre (Texans) travels and erases — only 34% separation allowed — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Texans' run game leans on David Montgomery — 13 carries, 54 yds a game (4.1 a carry), with the holes opening to the right side.
  • Jonathan Taylor carries the load for the Colts, 14 carries for 55 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, churning off right tackle.

Model vs Market

HST by 7.3 (72% to win) Projected total 44 pts C.J. Stroud ~293 pass yds (250+ 74%) Jonathan Taylor ~55 rush yds (70+ 24%) Nico Collins ~90 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 64%)