IND @ JAX Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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IND Colts
17
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
IND38%17
JAX62%21
21
JAX Jaguars
BET VALUE
MARKET JAX -4.5 · O/U 49.5

Projected Team Stats

IND
JAX
38% Win Probability 62%
329 Total Yards 319
207 Passing Yards 221
122 Rushing Yards 98
2.4 Sacks 2.3
1.5 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

IND
PASS Daniel Jones220 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor79 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Alec Pierce5.0 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tyler Warren4.6 rec, 46 yds, 0.3 TD
JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence229 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten42 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Brian Thomas Jr.4.1 rec, 59 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Parker Washington2.9 rec, 42 yds, 0.3 TD

Jaguars by 3.5

Run it 50 times and Jaguars win 62% of them, by 3.5 on average (21-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) vs Sauce Gardner (Colts) - winner: Sauce Gardner, holding him to 41 yds on just 36% open, 0.6 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 5.1 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
In the Trenches
  • The Colts' quarterback should have time; the Jaguars win just 49% of reps for 4.3 sacks a game, led by Josh Hines-Allen (3.4 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Colts — a 50% win rate, 5.3 sacks and 25.4 pressures a game, and Laiatu Latu (3.2 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Brian Thomas Jr.'s show for the Jaguars: 41 yds a game, open on 36% of routes.
  • Expect the Colts to feed Alec Pierce: 5.8 catches for 51 yds a game, open 51% of the time.
  • On the back end, Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 33% of routes, adding 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Jaguars lean on Bhayshul Tuten, 12 carries for 42 yds a game at 3.4 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side.
  • The Colts' run game leans on Jonathan Taylor — 15 carries, 79 yds a game (5.1 a carry), churning off the right edge and moving the chains.

Model vs Market

Sim lineJAX -3.5
Market lineJAX -4.5
Sim total38
Market total49.5
JAX by 3.5 (62% to win) Projected total 38 pts Trevor Lawrence ~229 pass yds (250+ 32%) Jonathan Taylor ~79 rush yds (70+ 56%) Alec Pierce ~70 rec yds, 5.0 rec (70+ 44%)