IND @ KC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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IND Colts
19
PROJECTION
Week 2 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
IND40%19
KC60%22
22
KC Chiefs
BET VALUE
MARKET KC -5.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

IND
KC
40% Win Probability 60%
336 Total Yards 317
219 Passing Yards 193
118 Rushing Yards 124
3.2 Sacks 1.9
1.6 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

IND
PASS Daniel Jones226 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor75 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Alec Pierce5.8 rec, 83 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Tyler Warren4.6 rec, 47 yds, 0.3 TD
KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes209 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III63 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Rashee Rice5.9 rec, 63 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Xavier Worthy3.5 rec, 43 yds

Chiefs by 2.5

The sim sides with Chiefs: a 2.5-point edge and a 60% win rate over 50 runs (22-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 5.5 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Juanyeh Thomas (Colts) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 4.7 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
In the Trenches
  • The Colts' quarterback should have time; the Chiefs win just 51% of reps for 4.5 sacks a game, led by George Karlaftis (1.3 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Colts — a 48% win rate, 6.6 sacks and 28.7 pressures a game, and Laiatu Latu (3.8 sacks, 9.7 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Chiefs' aerial attack runs through Rashee Rice (47 yds a game, open on 46% of routes).
  • Alec Pierce is the engine of the Colts' passing game — 57 yds a game on 51% separation.
  • In coverage, Charvarius Ward (Colts) travels and erases — only 40% separation allowed — and 0.4 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Kenneth Walker III sets the tempo for the Chiefs — 63 yds a game on the ground at 4.7 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • Expect a steady diet of Jonathan Taylor: 75 yds a game at 5.5 a carry for the Colts, churning off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineKC -2.5
Market lineKC -5.5
Sim total41
Market total47.5
KC by 2.5 (60% to win) Projected total 41 pts Daniel Jones ~226 pass yds (250+ 28%) Jonathan Taylor ~75 rush yds (70+ 56%) Alec Pierce ~83 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 60%)