IND @ KC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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IND Colts
27
PROJECTION
IND 30 – KC 33
Week 2 50-sim average Sun 20 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
IND52%27 30
KC48%24 33
24
KC Chiefs
✗ RESULT KC by 3 model IND by 2.2, off by 5.2
✓ VALUE IND +6.5 WIN line at publish KC -6.5
✓ TOTAL 63 pts OVER O/U 48, model 51 lean over

Projected Team Stats

IND
KC
52% Win Probability 48%
406 Total Yards 358
270 Passing Yards 226
135 Rushing Yards 132
2.7 Sacks 1.4
1.7 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

IND
PASS Daniel Jones268 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor93 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Alec Pierce5.6 rec, 92 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tyler Warren4.7 rec, 51 yds, 0.6 TD
KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes238 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III77 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Rashee Rice5.1 rec, 60 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Xavier Worthy4.0 rec, 58 yds, 0.3 TD

Colts by 2.2

Colts are the pick here, favoured by 2.2 and winning 52% of 50 sims (projected 27-24).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 6.4 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Camryn Bynum (Colts) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 6.7 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Alec Pierce (Colts) vs Jadon Canady (Chiefs) - winner: Alec Pierce, open on 58% of routes for 6.9/9.7, 73 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Colts — a 50% win rate yields only 5.2 sacks and 23.0 pressures a game, Laiatu Latu (2.6 sacks, 8.0 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Chiefs — a 50% win rate yields only 3.2 sacks and 16.4 pressures a game, with George Karlaftis (1.1 sacks, 6.8 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Alec Pierce headlines the Colts' receiving corps — 6.9 catches for 73 yds a game on 58% separation.
  • Expect the Chiefs to feed Rashee Rice: 6.2 catches for 49 yds a game, open 50% of the time.
  • Charvarius Ward (Colts) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 40% of routes, adding 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Colts hand it to Jonathan Taylor early and often, 15 carries for 93 yds a game at 6.4 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Kenneth Walker III sets the tempo for the Chiefs — 77 yds a game on the ground at 6.7 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge and moving the chains.

Model vs Market

Sim lineIND -2.2
Market lineKC -6.5
Sim total51
Market total48
IND by 2.2 (52% to win) Projected total 51 pts Daniel Jones ~268 pass yds (250+ 54%) Jonathan Taylor ~93 rush yds (70+ 62%) Alec Pierce ~92 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 66%)