IND @ MIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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IND Colts
21
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
IND46%21
MIN54%21
21
MIN Vikings
BET VALUE
MARKET MIN -6 · O/U 42.5

Projected Team Stats

IND
MIN
46% Win Probability 54%
329 Total Yards 290
233 Passing Yards 195
96 Rushing Yards 94
2.9 Sacks 1.8
1.3 Turnovers 0.7

Projected Leaders

IND
PASS Daniel Jones241 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor58 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Josh Downs5.2 rec, 64 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tyler Warren4.7 rec, 49 yds, 0.5 TD
MIN
PASS Kyler Murray210 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones52 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Justin Jefferson4.6 rec, 62 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jordan Addison3.4 rec, 49 yds, 0.3 TD

Vikings by 0.6

Run it 50 times and Vikings win 54% of them, by 0.6 on average (21-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Adetomiwa Adebawore (Colts) vs Will Fries (Vikings) - winner: Adetomiwa Adebawore, winning 56% of reps for 1.0 sacks and 4.1 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
In the Trenches
  • The Colts' line should hold up: the Vikings win just 49% of their reps, mustering 4.0 sacks and 14.6 pressures a game, and Dallas Turner (2.9 sacks, 6.6 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Colts get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.7 sacks a game), led by Laiatu Latu (1.6 sacks, 6.7 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Justin Jefferson should find soft spots all day, open 57% of the time for 51 yds a game.
  • Josh Downs should find soft spots all day, open 51% of the time for 44 yds a game.
  • Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 33% of his coverage snaps with 0.4 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Aaron Jones sets the tempo for the Vikings — 52 yds a game on the ground at 4.1 a carry, churning off the right edge.
  • The Colts hand it to Jonathan Taylor early and often, 14 carries for 58 yds a game at 4.3 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineMIN -0.6
Market lineMIN -6
Sim total42
Market total42.5
MIN by 0.6 (54% to win) Projected total 42 pts Daniel Jones ~241 pass yds (250+ 42%) Jonathan Taylor ~58 rush yds (70+ 30%) Josh Downs ~64 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 46%)