IND @ MIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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IND Colts
23
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
IND66%23
MIN34%17
17
MIN Vikings
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take IND +3 +9.2 pts
MARKET MIN -3 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

IND
MIN
66% Win Probability 34%
352 Total Yards 276
229 Passing Yards 182
123 Rushing Yards 93
2.9 Sacks 1.5
1.4 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

IND
PASS Daniel Jones225 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor84 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Alec Pierce5.2 rec, 83 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Josh Downs3.9 rec, 48 yds, 0.4 TD
MIN
PASS Kyler Murray201 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones43 rush yds
REC Justin Jefferson5.0 rec, 58 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jauan Jennings4.2 rec, 45 yds, 0.3 TD

Colts by 6.2

The model leans Colts by 6.2, winning 66% of 50 sims (projected 23-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Theo Jackson (Vikings) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 6.4 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
In the Trenches
  • The Colts may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.4 sacks a game (Laiatu Latu (3.4 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Vikings get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (3.4 sacks a game), led by Dallas Turner (2.3 sacks, 5.2 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Look for Alec Pierce to eat: 6.2 catches and 64 yds a game for the Colts.
  • Justin Jefferson headlines the Vikings' receiving corps — 5.4 catches for 42 yds a game on 49% separation.
  • Few balls get past Juanyeh Thomas (Colts), who yields separation on 42% of routes with 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Jonathan Taylor: 84 yds a game at 6.4 a carry for the Colts, churning to the right side.
  • On the ground, the Vikings ride Aaron Jones: 12 carries, 43 yds a game (3.6 a carry), with his best work off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineIND -6.2
Market lineMIN -3
Sim total40
Market total47.5
IND by 6.2 (66% to win) Projected total 40 pts Daniel Jones ~225 pass yds (250+ 32%) Jonathan Taylor ~84 rush yds (70+ 56%) Alec Pierce ~83 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 60%)