IND @ PHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
IND Colts
20
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
IND48%20
PHI52%20
20
PHI Eagles
BET VALUE
Lean IND +5.5 +5.7 pts
MARKET PHI -5.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

IND
PHI
48% Win Probability 52%
331 Total Yards 312
193 Passing Yards 186
138 Rushing Yards 125
3.1 Sacks 1.7
1.4 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

IND
PASS Daniel Jones196 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor97 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Alec Pierce5.0 rec, 64 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tyler Warren4.3 rec, 42 yds, 0.3 TD
PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts203 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley58 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC DeVonta Smith4.7 rec, 60 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Makai Lemon4.7 rec, 54 yds, 0.3 TD

Colts by 0.2

The model leans Colts by 0.2, winning 48% of 50 sims (projected 20-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Jihaad Campbell (Eagles) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 6.7 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • DeVonta Smith (Eagles) vs Justin Walley (Colts) - winner: DeVonta Smith, open on 58% of routes for 6.0/7.8, 52 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • The Colts get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (6.1 sacks a game), Laiatu Latu (3.7 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Eagles — a 51% win rate, 4.0 sacks and 17.6 pressures a game, and Jonathan Greenard (1.3 sacks, 6.7 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Colts lean on Alec Pierce, good for 5.8 catches and 42 yds a game while breaking open on 44% of his routes.
  • Through the air it is DeVonta Smith's show for the Eagles: 52 yds a game, open on 58% of routes.
  • On the back end, Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 37% of routes, good for 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Colts' run game leans on Jonathan Taylor — 14 carries, 97 yds a game (6.7 a carry), doing his damage off the right edge and moving the chains.
  • The Eagles hand it to Saquon Barkley early and often, 13 carries for 58 yds a game at 4.5 a carry, with his best work off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineIND -0.2
Market linePHI -5.5
Sim total39
Market total46.5
IND by 0.2 (48% to win) Projected total 39 pts Jalen Hurts ~203 pass yds (250+ 20%) Jonathan Taylor ~97 rush yds (70+ 70%) Alec Pierce ~64 rec yds, 5.0 rec (70+ 44%)