IND @ PIT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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IND Colts
19
PROJECTION
Week 5 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
IND62%19
PIT38%16
16
PIT Steelers
BET VALUE
Lean IND +2.5 +5.5 pts
MARKET PIT -2.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

IND
PIT
62% Win Probability 38%
330 Total Yards 311
217 Passing Yards 221
113 Rushing Yards 90
2.1 Sacks 2.0
1.2 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

IND
PASS Daniel Jones225 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor79 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Alec Pierce5.1 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tyler Warren3.9 rec, 43 yds, 0.4 TD
PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers232 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren60 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.8 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Germie Bernard4.8 rec, 48 yds, 0.3 TD

Colts by 3.0

Colts are the pick here, favoured by 3.0 and winning 62% of 50 sims (projected 19-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Jaquan Brisker (Steelers) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 5.3 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • D.K. Metcalf (Steelers) vs Sauce Gardner (Colts) - winner: Sauce Gardner, holding him to 44 yds on just 38% open, 0.6 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
  • Nick Herbig (Steelers) vs Jalen Travis (Colts) - winner: Nick Herbig, winning 60% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 3.4 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Colts — a 50% win rate, 3.7 sacks and 9.6 pressures a game — Laiatu Latu (3.1 sacks, 4.7 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Colts' quarterback should have time; the Steelers win just 51% of reps for 4.5 sacks a game, with T.J. Watt (1.0 sacks, 6.5 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Alec Pierce headlines the Colts' receiving corps — 6.6 catches for 53 yds a game on 49% separation.
  • D.K. Metcalf headlines the Steelers' receiving corps — 6.2 catches for 44 yds a game on 38% separation.
  • Sauce Gardner (Colts) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 36% of routes — and 0.7 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Jonathan Taylor is the workhorse for the Colts, churning 79 yds a game at 5.3 a carry, with his best work off the right edge and controlling the clock.
  • The Steelers lean on Jaylen Warren, 13 carries for 60 yds a game at 4.6 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineIND -3.0
Market linePIT -2.5
Sim total36
Market total47.5
IND by 3.0 (62% to win) Projected total 36 pts Aaron Rodgers ~232 pass yds (250+ 30%) Jonathan Taylor ~79 rush yds (70+ 56%) Alec Pierce ~72 rec yds, 5.1 rec (70+ 48%)