IND @ PIT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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IND Colts
19
PROJECTION
IND 22 – PIT 34
Week 5 50-sim average Sun 11 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
IND30%19 22
PIT70%24 34
24
PIT Steelers
✓ RESULT PIT by 12 model PIT by 4.8, off by 7.2
✓ SPREAD PIT -2.5 WIN line at publish PIT -2.5
✗ TOTAL 56 pts OVER O/U 44.5, model 43 lean under

Projected Team Stats

IND
PIT
30% Win Probability 70%
318 Total Yards 382
224 Passing Yards 262
94 Rushing Yards 120
2.0 Sacks 1.6
1.7 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

IND
PASS Daniel Jones235 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor59 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Josh Downs5.1 rec, 69 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tyler Warren4.8 rec, 49 yds, 0.4 TD
PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers268 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren79 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf6.6 rec, 91 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Michael Pittman Jr.4.4 rec, 51 yds, 0.3 TD

Steelers by 4.8

Run it 50 times and Steelers win 70% of them, by 4.8 on average (24-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Camryn Bynum (Colts) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 6.5 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Steelers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 3.6 sacks a game, and Alex Highsmith (1.0 sacks, 6.2 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Steelers' quarterback should have time; the Colts win just 51% of reps for 4.1 sacks a game, led by Arden Key (0.9 sacks, 6.1 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Steelers' aerial attack runs through D.K. Metcalf (52 yds a game, open on 46% of routes).
  • Josh Downs headlines the Colts' receiving corps — 5.2 catches for 44 yds a game on 47% separation.
  • Jamel Dean (Steelers) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 41% of routes — and 0.4 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Jaylen Warren is the workhorse for the Steelers, churning 79 yds a game at 6.5 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle and controlling the clock.
  • Jonathan Taylor is the workhorse for the Colts, churning 59 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, with his best work off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim linePIT -4.8
Market linePIT -2.5
Sim total43
Market total44.5
PIT by 4.8 (70% to win) Projected total 43 pts Aaron Rodgers ~268 pass yds (250+ 50%) Jaylen Warren ~79 rush yds (70+ 56%) D.K. Metcalf ~91 rec yds, 6.6 rec (70+ 68%)