IND @ TEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 15 slate
IND Colts
27
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
IND84%27
TEN16%13
13
TEN Titans
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take IND -1.5 +12.8 pts
MARKET IND -1.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

IND
TEN
84% Win Probability 16%
384 Total Yards 241
240 Passing Yards 166
144 Rushing Yards 75
4.4 Sacks 1.8
1.1 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

IND
PASS Daniel Jones221 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor94 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Alec Pierce5.0 rec, 81 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Josh Downs4.1 rec, 53 yds, 0.3 TD
TEN
PASS Cam Ward198 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard36 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Carnell Tate4.4 rec, 58 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson3.9 rec, 42 yds, 0.1 TD

Colts by 14.3

Colts are the pick here, favoured by 14.3 and winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 27-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Kevin Winston Jr. (Titans) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 6.1 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
In the Trenches
  • The Colts may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 7.4 sacks a game (Laiatu Latu (4.0 sacks, 9.6 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Titans get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (3.7 sacks a game), John Franklin-Myers (0.9 sacks, 5.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Alec Pierce is the engine of the Colts' passing game — 61 yds a game on 55% separation.
  • Carnell Tate should find soft spots all day, open 51% of the time for 44 yds a game.
  • Alontae Taylor (Titans) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 42% of routes with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Colts lean on Jonathan Taylor, 15 carries for 94 yds a game at 6.1 a carry, with his best work to the right side.
  • Tony Pollard is the workhorse for the Titans, churning 36 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, churning to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineIND -14.3
Market lineIND -1.5
Sim total41
Market total47.5
IND by 14.3 (84% to win) Projected total 41 pts Daniel Jones ~221 pass yds (250+ 38%) Jonathan Taylor ~94 rush yds (70+ 66%) Alec Pierce ~81 rec yds, 5.0 rec (70+ 54%)