IND @ WAS Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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IND Colts
22
PROJECTION
IND 30 – WAS 13
Week 4 50-sim average Sun 4 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
IND72%22 30
WAS28%16 13
16
WAS Commanders
✓ RESULT IND by 17 model IND by 5.7, off by 11.3
✓ SPREAD IND -3.5 WIN line at publish IND -3.5
✓ TOTAL 43 pts UNDER O/U 47, model 38 lean under

Projected Team Stats

IND
WAS
72% Win Probability 28%
345 Total Yards 263
237 Passing Yards 174
109 Rushing Yards 89
3.2 Sacks 1.9
1.5 Turnovers 0.6

Projected Leaders

IND
PASS Daniel Jones232 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor68 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Josh Downs5.4 rec, 69 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tyler Warren4.9 rec, 51 yds, 0.5 TD
WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels194 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt39 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Terry McLaurin3.8 rec, 55 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Stefon Diggs3.1 rec, 40 yds, 0.2 TD

Colts by 5.7

Run it 50 times and Colts win 72% of them, by 5.7 on average (22-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) vs Justin Walley (Colts) - winner: Justin Walley, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Nick Cross (Commanders) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 4.6 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
In the Trenches
  • The Colts get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (5.6 sacks a game), led by Arden Key (2.1 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game).
  • The Colts' line should hold up: the Commanders win just 50% of their reps, mustering 3.6 sacks and 14.9 pressures a game (Odafe Oweh (2.6 sacks, 6.2 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Josh Downs is the go-to for the Colts, separating on 55% of routes for 52 yds a game.
  • Through the air it is Terry McLaurin's show for the Commanders: 38 yds a game, open on 45% of routes.
  • Sauce Gardner (Colts) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 41% of routes, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Colts hand it to Jonathan Taylor early and often, 15 carries for 68 yds a game at 4.6 a carry, with his best work off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • On the ground, the Commanders ride Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 13 carries, 39 yds a game (2.9 a carry), doing his damage to the right side against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineIND -5.7
Market lineIND -3.5
Sim total38
Market total47
IND by 5.7 (72% to win) Projected total 38 pts Daniel Jones ~232 pass yds (250+ 40%) Jonathan Taylor ~68 rush yds (70+ 40%) Josh Downs ~69 rec yds, 5.4 rec (70+ 52%)