IND @ WAS Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 4 slate
IND Colts
28
PROJECTION
Week 4 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
IND78%28
WAS22%17
17
WAS Commanders
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take IND +1.5 +12.3 pts
MARKET WAS -1.5 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

IND
WAS
78% Win Probability 22%
412 Total Yards 259
263 Passing Yards 164
149 Rushing Yards 94
2.9 Sacks 1.6
1.3 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

IND
PASS Daniel Jones254 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor94 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC Alec Pierce5.5 rec, 88 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tyler Warren5.3 rec, 65 yds, 0.6 TD
WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels186 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt53 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Terry McLaurin4.2 rec, 59 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Antonio Williams3.2 rec, 33 yds, 0.1 TD

Colts by 10.8

The sim sides with Colts: a 10.8-point edge and a 78% win rate over 50 runs (28-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 6.5 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Alec Pierce (Colts) vs Trey Amos (Commanders) - winner: Alec Pierce, open on 64% of routes for 6.8/9.3, 71 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Colts get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (5.6 sacks a game), led by Laiatu Latu (3.1 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game).
  • The Colts' line should hold up: the Commanders win just 50% of their reps, mustering 3.5 sacks and 14.3 pressures a game (Odafe Oweh (2.6 sacks, 6.1 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Alec Pierce is the go-to for the Colts, separating on 64% of routes for 71 yds a game.
  • Through the air it is Terry McLaurin's show for the Commanders: 46 yds a game, open on 49% of routes.
  • Charvarius Ward (Colts) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 43% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Colts hand it to Jonathan Taylor early and often, 15 carries for 94 yds a game at 6.5 a carry, with his best work off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • The Commanders' run game leans on Jacory Croskey-Merritt — 12 carries, 53 yds a game (4.2 a carry), doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineIND -10.8
Market lineWAS -1.5
Sim total45
Market total48.5
IND by 10.8 (78% to win) Projected total 45 pts Daniel Jones ~254 pass yds (250+ 56%) Jonathan Taylor ~94 rush yds (70+ 72%) Alec Pierce ~88 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 68%)