JAX @ BLT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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JAX Jaguars
16
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
JAX54%16
BLT46%15
15
BLT Ravens
BET VALUE
MARKET BLT -4.5 · O/U 49.5

Projected Team Stats

JAX
BLT
54% Win Probability 46%
281 Total Yards 286
198 Passing Yards 164
83 Rushing Yards 122
3.0 Sacks 2.3
1.1 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence213 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten32 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Brian Thomas Jr.4.0 rec, 54 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Parker Washington2.6 rec, 38 yds, 0.1 TD
BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson183 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry72 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.7 rec, 62 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.6 rec, 31 yds, 0.1 TD

Jaguars by 0.8

Run it 50 times and Jaguars win 54% of them, by 0.8 on average (16-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Rashod Bateman (Ravens) vs Jourdan Lewis (Jaguars) - winner: Jourdan Lewis, holding him to 16 yds on just 35% open, 0.5 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Roquan Smith (Ravens) - winner: Roquan Smith, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - running into a wall.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Jaguars — a 50% win rate yields only 5.9 sacks and 24.0 pressures a game, with Josh Hines-Allen (3.9 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Ravens may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 4.8 sacks a game (Tavius Robinson (1.2 sacks, 6.1 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Jaguars lean on Brian Thomas Jr., good for 4.3 catches and 34 yds a game while breaking open on 41% of his routes.
  • The Ravens will live and die with Zay Flowers, who comes open 55% of the time (51 yds a game).
  • Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 29% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Jaguars' run game leans on Bhayshul Tuten — 11 carries, 32 yds a game (2.9 a carry) into a stout front.
  • Derrick Henry carries the load for the Ravens, 17 carries for 72 yds a game at 4.3 a carry, with his best work to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineJAX -0.8
Market lineBLT -4.5
Sim total32
Market total49.5
JAX by 0.8 (54% to win) Projected total 32 pts Trevor Lawrence ~213 pass yds (250+ 26%) Derrick Henry ~72 rush yds (70+ 46%) Zay Flowers ~62 rec yds, 4.7 rec (70+ 44%)