JAX @ CHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
JAX Jaguars
22
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
JAX58%22
CHI42%18
18
CHI Bears
BET VALUE
Lean JAX +2.5 +6.9 pts
MARKET CHI -2.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

JAX
CHI
58% Win Probability 42%
336 Total Yards 301
211 Passing Yards 192
126 Rushing Yards 110
3.8 Sacks 2.5
1.7 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence221 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten49 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Brian Thomas Jr.3.8 rec, 48 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Brenton Strange4.2 rec, 47 yds, 0.4 TD
CHI
PASS Caleb Williams215 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift47 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Rome Odunze4.9 rec, 69 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Colston Loveland2.9 rec, 36 yds, 0.1 TD

Jaguars by 4.4

The sim sides with Jaguars: a 4.4-point edge and a 58% win rate over 50 runs (22-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Jaguars — a 48% win rate yields only 7.6 sacks and 29.1 pressures a game, with Josh Hines-Allen (5.4 sacks, 10.2 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Bears may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.1 sacks a game — Montez Sweat (1.6 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Brian Thomas Jr.'s show for the Jaguars: 33 yds a game, open on 45% of routes.
  • Through the air it is Rome Odunze's show for the Bears: 43 yds a game, open on 42% of routes.
  • On the back end, Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 35% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Jaguars lean on Bhayshul Tuten, 12 carries for 49 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, finding room off the right edge.
  • Expect a steady diet of D'Andre Swift: 47 yds a game at 3.8 a carry for the Bears, with his best work off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineJAX -4.4
Market lineCHI -2.5
Sim total40
Market total47.5
JAX by 4.4 (58% to win) Projected total 40 pts Trevor Lawrence ~221 pass yds (250+ 28%) Bhayshul Tuten ~49 rush yds (70+ 12%) Rome Odunze ~69 rec yds, 4.9 rec (70+ 40%)