JAX @ CHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 13 slate
JAX Jaguars
23
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
JAX68%23
CHI32%17
17
CHI Bears

Projected Team Stats

JAX
CHI
68% Win Probability 32%
376 Total Yards 294
253 Passing Yards 180
122 Rushing Yards 114
3.2 Sacks 2.3
1.5 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence252 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten63 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Parker Washington5.6 rec, 85 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Brenton Strange4.0 rec, 47 yds, 0.4 TD
CHI
PASS Caleb Williams202 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift51 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rome Odunze4.4 rec, 58 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Luther Burden III3.9 rec, 47 yds, 0.3 TD

Jaguars by 5.9

The sim sides with Jaguars: a 5.9-point edge and a 68% win rate over 50 runs (23-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Jaguars — a 50% win rate yields only 6.0 sacks and 26.1 pressures a game, with Josh Hines-Allen (3.5 sacks, 9.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Bears may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 4.1 sacks a game — Montez Sweat (1.0 sacks, 6.4 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Parker Washington's show for the Jaguars: 66 yds a game, open on 56% of routes.
  • Through the air it is Rome Odunze's show for the Bears: 47 yds a game, open on 49% of routes.
  • On the back end, Ventrell Miller (Jaguars) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 33% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Jaguars lean on Bhayshul Tuten, 14 carries for 63 yds a game at 4.5 a carry, finding room off the right edge.
  • Expect a steady diet of D'Andre Swift: 51 yds a game at 3.9 a carry for the Bears, with his best work off right tackle.

Model vs Market

JAX by 5.9 (68% to win) Projected total 41 pts Trevor Lawrence ~252 pass yds (250+ 56%) Bhayshul Tuten ~63 rush yds (70+ 32%) Parker Washington ~85 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 58%)