JAX @ CIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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JAX Jaguars
20
PROJECTION
Week 4 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
JAX46%20
CIN54%22
22
CIN Bengals
BET VALUE
MARKET CIN -2.5 · O/U 51.5

Projected Team Stats

JAX
CIN
46% Win Probability 54%
339 Total Yards 354
243 Passing Yards 291
96 Rushing Yards 63
2.9 Sacks 2.8
1.4 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence256 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten40 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Brian Thomas Jr.4.6 rec, 64 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jakobi Meyers4.1 rec, 50 yds, 0.1 TD
CIN
PASS Joe Burrow306 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Chase Brown38 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase7.8 rec, 86 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tee Higgins4.9 rec, 64 yds, 0.3 TD

Bengals by 1.8

The model leans Bengals by 1.8, winning 54% of 50 sims (projected 22-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Josh Hines-Allen (Jaguars) vs Amarius Mims (Bengals) - winner: Josh Hines-Allen, winning 55% of reps for 4.4 sacks and 12.3 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) vs DJ Turner II (Bengals) - winner: DJ Turner II, holding him to 37 yds on just 38% open, 0.8 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Bryan Cook, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Bengals — a 51% win rate, 5.6 sacks and 30.7 pressures a game, and Boye Mafe (1.9 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Jaguars get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (6.1 sacks a game), Josh Hines-Allen (4.4 sacks, 12.3 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Bengals to feed Ja'Marr Chase: 11.2 catches for 78 yds a game, open 56% of the time.
  • Brian Thomas Jr. is the go-to for the Jaguars, separating on 38% of routes for 37 yds a game.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Antonio Johnson (Jaguars): 28% separation allowed, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Chase Brown sets the tempo for the Bengals — 38 yds a game on the ground at 3.5 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge.
  • Expect a steady diet of Bhayshul Tuten: 40 yds a game at 3.2 a carry for the Jaguars.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCIN -1.8
Market lineCIN -2.5
Sim total42
Market total51.5
CIN by 1.8 (54% to win) Projected total 42 pts Joe Burrow ~306 pass yds (250+ 80%) Ja'Marr Chase ~86 rec yds, 7.8 rec (70+ 58%)