JAX @ DAL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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JAX Jaguars
21
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
JAX54%21
DAL46%20
20
DAL Cowboys
BET VALUE
MARKET DAL -2.5 · O/U 51.5

Projected Team Stats

JAX
DAL
54% Win Probability 46%
330 Total Yards 353
249 Passing Yards 238
81 Rushing Yards 115
2.7 Sacks 2.5
0.8 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence260 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten29 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Brian Thomas Jr.4.7 rec, 66 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jakobi Meyers4.1 rec, 50 yds, 0.2 TD
DAL
PASS Dak Prescott255 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams66 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb5.5 rec, 69 yds, 0.4 TD
REC George Pickens4.7 rec, 61 yds, 0.4 TD

Jaguars by 0.7

The sim sides with Jaguars: a 0.7-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (21-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Josh Hines-Allen (Jaguars) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Josh Hines-Allen, winning 56% of reps for 3.7 sacks and 10.4 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Jalen Thompson (Cowboys) - winner: Jalen Thompson, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) - winner: Javonte Williams, 4.8 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
In the Trenches
  • The Jaguars get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (5.4 sacks a game), Josh Hines-Allen (3.7 sacks, 10.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Jaguars' quarterback should have time; the Cowboys win just 50% of reps for 5.0 sacks a game, with Rashan Gary (1.4 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Brian Thomas Jr. should find soft spots all day, open 47% of the time for 43 yds a game.
  • The Cowboys lean on CeeDee Lamb, good for 7.5 catches and 57 yds a game while breaking open on 50% of his routes.
  • Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 31% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Jaguars hand it to Bhayshul Tuten early and often, 11 carries for 29 yds a game at 2.6 a carry with tough sledding.
  • The Cowboys' run game leans on Javonte Williams — 14 carries, 66 yds a game (4.8 a carry), with his best work to the right side and moving the chains.

Model vs Market

Sim lineJAX -0.7
Market lineDAL -2.5
Sim total42
Market total51.5
JAX by 0.7 (54% to win) Projected total 42 pts Trevor Lawrence ~260 pass yds (250+ 52%) Javonte Williams ~66 rush yds (70+ 38%) CeeDee Lamb ~69 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 48%)