JAX @ DEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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JAX Jaguars
18
PROJECTION
Week 2 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
JAX32%18
DEN68%23
23
DEN Broncos
BET VALUE
MARKET DEN -2.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

JAX
DEN
32% Win Probability 68%
321 Total Yards 345
221 Passing Yards 218
100 Rushing Yards 127
2.9 Sacks 3.0
1.6 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence243 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten37 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Brian Thomas Jr.4.5 rec, 59 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Parker Washington3.5 rec, 49 yds, 0.3 TD
DEN
PASS Bo Nix232 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins57 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle5.7 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Courtland Sutton4.7 rec, 56 yds, 0.2 TD

Broncos by 5.0

Run it 50 times and Broncos win 68% of them, by 5.0 on average (23-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) vs Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) - winner: Ja'Quan McMillian, holding him to 37 yds on just 34% open, 0.7 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 5.0 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Riley Moss (Broncos) - winner: Riley Moss, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Jaylen Waddle (Broncos) vs Jourdan Lewis (Jaguars) - winner: Jaylen Waddle, open on 60% of routes for 7.2/8.7, 56 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
  • The Broncos get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (6.2 sacks a game), with Jonathon Cooper (1.6 sacks, 8.9 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Jaguars — a 49% win rate, 5.6 sacks and 22.8 pressures a game (Josh Hines-Allen (3.7 sacks, 9.9 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Look for Jaylen Waddle to eat: 7.2 catches and 56 yds a game for the Broncos.
  • The Jaguars' aerial attack runs through Brian Thomas Jr. (37 yds a game, open on 34% of routes).
  • On the back end, Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 28% of routes with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Broncos' run game leans on J.K. Dobbins — 11 carries, 57 yds a game (5.0 a carry), finding room off the right edge and moving the chains.
  • Bhayshul Tuten is the workhorse for the Jaguars, churning 37 yds a game at 3.1 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDEN -5.0
Market lineDEN -2.5
Sim total40
Market total43.5
DEN by 5.0 (68% to win) Projected total 40 pts Trevor Lawrence ~243 pass yds (250+ 42%) J.K. Dobbins ~57 rush yds (70+ 28%) Jaylen Waddle ~70 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 44%)