JAX @ DEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 2 slate
JAX Jaguars
21
PROJECTION
JAX 13 – DEN 20
Week 2 50-sim average Sun 20 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
JAX68%21 13
DEN32%17 20
17
DEN Broncos
✗ RESULT DEN by 7 model JAX by 3.9, off by 10.9
✗ VALUE JAX +2.5 LOSS line at publish DEN -2.5
✓ TOTAL 33 pts UNDER O/U 44.5, model 39 lean under

Projected Team Stats

JAX
DEN
68% Win Probability 32%
330 Total Yards 312
219 Passing Yards 205
111 Rushing Yards 107
2.9 Sacks 2.8
1.3 Turnovers 1.7

Projected Leaders

JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence231 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten46 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Parker Washington4.2 rec, 59 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Brian Thomas Jr.4.4 rec, 55 yds, 0.3 TD
DEN
PASS Bo Nix223 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins53 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle6.5 rec, 78 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Courtland Sutton3.4 rec, 38 yds, 0.2 TD

Jaguars by 3.9

The model leans Jaguars by 3.9, winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 21-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) vs Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) - winner: Ja'Quan McMillian, holding him to 30 yds on just 37% open, 0.8 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 4.7 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Jaguars may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 6.2 sacks a game (Josh Hines-Allen (4.1 sacks, 10.6 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Broncos — a 50% win rate, 5.6 sacks and 26.9 pressures a game (Jonah Elliss (1.7 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Parker Washington is the go-to for the Jaguars, separating on 62% of routes for 37 yds a game.
  • The Broncos' aerial attack runs through Jaylen Waddle (63 yds a game, open on 49% of routes).
  • Receivers won't find much room against Antonio Johnson (Jaguars): 34% separation allowed — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Jaguars hand it to Bhayshul Tuten early and often, 13 carries for 46 yds a game at 3.6 a carry, churning off right tackle.
  • J.K. Dobbins carries the load for the Broncos, 11 carries for 53 yds a game at 4.7 a carry, churning to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim lineJAX -3.9
Market lineDEN -2.5
Sim total39
Market total44.5
JAX by 3.9 (68% to win) Projected total 39 pts Trevor Lawrence ~231 pass yds (250+ 40%) J.K. Dobbins ~53 rush yds (70+ 20%) Jaylen Waddle ~78 rec yds, 6.5 rec (70+ 50%)