JAX @ HST Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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JAX Jaguars
21
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
JAX58%21
HST42%21
21
HST Texans
BET VALUE
MARKET HST -3 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

JAX
HST
58% Win Probability 42%
290 Total Yards 336
216 Passing Yards 230
74 Rushing Yards 106
2.9 Sacks 3.2
1.5 Turnovers 2.0

Projected Leaders

JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence238 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten30 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Brian Thomas Jr.4.3 rec, 56 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Parker Washington3.3 rec, 46 yds, 0.3 TD
HST
PASS C.J. Stroud244 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH David Montgomery56 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Nico Collins5.6 rec, 77 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jayden Higgins3.2 rec, 42 yds, 0.1 TD

Jaguars by 0.0

Across 50 simulations, Jaguars come out on top 58% of the time by an average of 0.0 (21-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) vs Kamari Lassiter (Texans) - winner: Kamari Lassiter, holding him to 33 yds on just 36% open, 0.9 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
  • Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Tremon Smith (Texans) - winner: Tremon Smith, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
In the Trenches
  • The Texans' quarterback should have time; the Jaguars win just 50% of reps for 5.8 sacks a game, led by Josh Hines-Allen (4.3 sacks, 10.1 pressures a game).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Texans — a 51% win rate, 6.9 sacks and 31.6 pressures a game (Will Anderson Jr. (3.5 sacks, 9.9 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Jaguars will live and die with Brian Thomas Jr., who comes open 36% of the time (33 yds a game).
  • Expect the Texans to feed Nico Collins: 7.6 catches for 65 yds a game, open 56% of the time.
  • In coverage, Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) travels and erases — only 28% separation allowed, good for 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Bhayshul Tuten sets the tempo for the Jaguars — 30 yds a game on the ground at 2.4 a carry into a stout front.
  • David Montgomery carries the load for the Texans, 15 carries for 56 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, churning off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineJAX -0.0
Market lineHST -3
Sim total42
Market total43.5
JAX by 0.0 (58% to win) Projected total 42 pts C.J. Stroud ~244 pass yds (250+ 46%) David Montgomery ~56 rush yds (70+ 26%) Nico Collins ~77 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 50%)