JAX @ HST Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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JAX Jaguars
20
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
JAX56%20
HST44%20
20
HST Texans

Projected Team Stats

JAX
HST
56% Win Probability 44%
334 Total Yards 318
250 Passing Yards 256
84 Rushing Yards 63
2.8 Sacks 2.5
1.5 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence258 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten41 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Parker Washington5.4 rec, 82 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jakobi Meyers4.2 rec, 55 yds, 0.2 TD
HST
PASS C.J. Stroud266 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH David Montgomery30 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Nico Collins5.6 rec, 79 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.3.8 rec, 53 yds, 0.2 TD

Texans by 0.2

Across 50 simulations, Texans come out on top 44% of the time by an average of 0.2 (20-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Anton Harrison (Jaguars) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 56% of reps for 3.5 sacks and 8.8 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • David Montgomery (Texans) vs Foyesade Oluokun (Jaguars) - winner: Foyesade Oluokun, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Jalen Pitre (Texans) - winner: Jalen Pitre, holding him to 3.3 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Nico Collins (Texans) vs Montaric Brown (Jaguars) - winner: Nico Collins, open on 60% of routes for 8.2/10.1, 69 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
  • The Texans get stonewalled often up front, winning only 52% of reps (4.9 sacks a game), led by Will Anderson Jr. (3.5 sacks, 8.8 pressures a game).
  • The Jaguars may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.6 sacks a game, and Josh Hines-Allen (3.6 sacks, 8.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Nico Collins' show for the Texans: 69 yds a game, open on 60% of routes.
  • The Jaguars lean on Parker Washington, good for 6.7 catches and 61 yds a game while breaking open on 55% of his routes.
  • Ventrell Miller (Jaguars) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 34% of his coverage snaps, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Texans' run game leans on David Montgomery — 12 carries, 30 yds a game (2.4 a carry) into a stout front.
  • Bhayshul Tuten is the workhorse for the Jaguars, churning 41 yds a game at 3.3 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

HST by 0.2 (44% to win) Projected total 40 pts C.J. Stroud ~266 pass yds (250+ 64%) Parker Washington ~82 rec yds, 5.4 rec (70+ 62%)