JAX @ IND Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 18 slate
JAX Jaguars
19
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
JAX40%19
IND60%21
21
IND Colts
BET VALUE
MARKET IND -1.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

JAX
IND
40% Win Probability 60%
304 Total Yards 350
215 Passing Yards 222
88 Rushing Yards 128
1.8 Sacks 2.8
1.3 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence234 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten38 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Brian Thomas Jr.4.3 rec, 57 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Parker Washington3.3 rec, 52 yds, 0.3 TD
IND
PASS Daniel Jones224 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor81 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Alec Pierce5.1 rec, 77 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tyler Warren4.9 rec, 46 yds, 0.6 TD

Colts by 2.9

Run it 50 times and Colts win 60% of them, by 2.9 on average (21-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) vs Sauce Gardner (Colts) - winner: Sauce Gardner, holding him to 33 yds on just 37% open, 0.6 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 5.1 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
In the Trenches
  • The Jaguars' quarterback should have time; the Colts win just 51% of reps for 5.5 sacks a game, led by Laiatu Latu (3.1 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Jaguars — a 50% win rate, 3.9 sacks and 15.7 pressures a game (Josh Hines-Allen (2.9 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Alec Pierce's show for the Colts: 68 yds a game, open on 52% of routes.
  • Through the air it is Brian Thomas Jr.'s show for the Jaguars: 33 yds a game, open on 37% of routes.
  • Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 29% of his coverage snaps, adding 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Colts hand it to Jonathan Taylor early and often, 16 carries for 81 yds a game at 5.1 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • The Jaguars hand it to Bhayshul Tuten early and often, 11 carries for 38 yds a game at 3.3 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineIND -2.9
Market lineIND -1.5
Sim total40
Market total46.5
IND by 2.9 (60% to win) Projected total 40 pts Trevor Lawrence ~234 pass yds (250+ 44%) Jonathan Taylor ~81 rush yds (70+ 64%) Alec Pierce ~77 rec yds, 5.1 rec (70+ 48%)