JAX @ NYG Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

JAX Jaguars

PROJECTION

Week 11 50-sim average

	WIN%	PTS
JAX	74%	27
NYG	26%	17

NYG Giants

BET VALUE

Lean JAX -1.5 +8.4 pts

MARKET JAX -1.5 · O/U 46.5

JAX

NYG

74% Win Probability 26%

381 Total Yards 266

274 Passing Yards 181

108 Rushing Yards 86

3.1 Sacks 2.2

1.4 Turnovers 1.3

JAX

PASS

Trevor Lawrence269 pass yds, 2.1 TD

RUSH

Bhayshul Tuten41 rush yds, 0.2 TD

REC

Brian Thomas Jr.5.2 rec, 77 yds, 0.5 TD

REC

Jakobi Meyers4.3 rec, 55 yds, 0.6 TD

NYG

PASS

Jaxson Dart201 pass yds, 1.1 TD

RUSH

Cam Skattebo43 rush yds, 0.1 TD

REC

Malik Nabers5.0 rec, 75 yds, 0.3 TD

REC

Darius Slayton2.6 rec, 32 yds, 0.2 TD

The sim sides with Jaguars: a 9.9-point edge and a 74% win rate over 50 runs (27-17).

Keys to the Game

Darius Slayton (Giants) vs Jourdan Lewis (Jaguars) - winner: Jourdan Lewis, holding him to 14 yds on just 40% open, 0.3 INT a game, - blanket coverage.

In the Trenches

Don't expect much heat from the Jaguars — a 49% win rate yields only 6.2 sacks and 24.0 pressures a game, with Josh Hines-Allen (4.1 sacks, 8.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
The Jaguars' quarterback should have time; the Giants win just 51% of reps for 4.8 sacks a game, with Brian Burns (2.2 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) setting the tone.

Through the Air

Look for Brian Thomas Jr. to eat: 5.3 catches and 52 yds a game for the Jaguars.
The Giants will live and die with Malik Nabers, who comes open 47% of the time (53 yds a game).
Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 28% of his coverage snaps, adding 0.1 INT a game.

On the Ground

Expect a steady diet of Bhayshul Tuten: 41 yds a game at 3.5 a carry for the Jaguars, with the holes opening to the right side.
Cam Skattebo carries the load for the Giants, 13 carries for 43 yds a game at 3.4 a carry.