JAX @ TEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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JAX Jaguars
22
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
JAX74%22
TEN26%15
15
TEN Titans
BET VALUE
MARKET JAX -2.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

JAX
TEN
74% Win Probability 26%
336 Total Yards 262
238 Passing Yards 176
98 Rushing Yards 86
4.1 Sacks 2.4
1.3 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence242 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten41 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Brian Thomas Jr.5.2 rec, 70 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Parker Washington2.9 rec, 45 yds, 0.2 TD
TEN
PASS Cam Ward204 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard43 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Carnell Tate4.3 rec, 58 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson3.7 rec, 37 yds

Jaguars by 7.3

Jaguars are the pick here, favoured by 7.3 and winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 22-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Robert Hainsey (Jaguars) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 55% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 5.1 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
In the Trenches
  • The Titans' line should hold up: the Jaguars win just 49% of their reps, mustering 7.5 sacks and 31.7 pressures a game (Josh Hines-Allen (5.0 sacks, 10.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Jaguars' quarterback should have time; the Titans win just 49% of reps for 4.5 sacks a game, with John Franklin-Myers (1.5 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Brian Thomas Jr. should find soft spots all day, open 42% of the time for 41 yds a game.
  • Carnell Tate is the engine of the Titans' passing game — 41 yds a game on 53% separation.
  • Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 30% of his coverage snaps — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Jaguars hand it to Bhayshul Tuten early and often, 12 carries for 41 yds a game at 3.4 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.
  • Tony Pollard sets the tempo for the Titans — 43 yds a game on the ground at 4.2 a carry, churning off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineJAX -7.3
Market lineJAX -2.5
Sim total37
Market total45.5
JAX by 7.3 (74% to win) Projected total 37 pts Trevor Lawrence ~242 pass yds (250+ 46%) Brian Thomas Jr. ~70 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 54%)