JAX @ TEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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JAX Jaguars
24
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
JAX96%24
TEN4%9
9
TEN Titans

Projected Team Stats

JAX
TEN
96% Win Probability 4%
365 Total Yards 213
251 Passing Yards 171
114 Rushing Yards 42
3.6 Sacks 1.5
1.1 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence238 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten57 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Parker Washington5.0 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jakobi Meyers3.9 rec, 53 yds, 0.2 TD
TEN
PASS Cam Ward198 pass yds, 0.5 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard19 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Carnell Tate5.0 rec, 58 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson4.0 rec, 41 yds, 0.1 TD

Jaguars by 15.7

The model leans Jaguars by 15.7, winning 96% of 50 sims (projected 24-9).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Tony Pollard (Titans) vs Jarrian Jones (Jaguars) - winner: Jarrian Jones, holding him to 2.0 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Robert Hainsey (Jaguars) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 58% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 2.1 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Parker Washington (Jaguars) vs Marcus Harris (Titans) - winner: Parker Washington, open on 62% of routes for 5.9/8.4, 55 yds a game - money in this spot.
  • Albert Regis (Jaguars) vs Atonio Mafi (Titans) - winner: Albert Regis, winning 55% of reps for 0.1 sacks and 2.8 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
In the Trenches
  • The Jaguars get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (6.8 sacks a game), Josh Hines-Allen (4.1 sacks, 10.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Titans — a 51% win rate, 3.0 sacks and 14.8 pressures a game (John Franklin-Myers (0.7 sacks, 4.6 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Jaguars will live and die with Parker Washington, who comes open 62% of the time (55 yds a game).
  • Carnell Tate is the go-to for the Titans, separating on 48% of routes for 38 yds a game.
  • On the back end, Ventrell Miller (Jaguars) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 31% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Jaguars lean on Bhayshul Tuten, 13 carries for 57 yds a game at 4.3 a carry, churning off right tackle.
  • Tony Pollard sets the tempo for the Titans — 19 yds a game on the ground at 2.0 a carry into a stout front.

Model vs Market

JAX by 15.7 (96% to win) Projected total 33 pts Trevor Lawrence ~238 pass yds (250+ 38%) Bhayshul Tuten ~57 rush yds (70+ 22%) Parker Washington ~71 rec yds, 5.0 rec (70+ 36%)