KC @ ATL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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KC Chiefs
23
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
KC34%23
ATL66%28
28
ATL Falcons

Projected Team Stats

KC
ATL
34% Win Probability 66%
379 Total Yards 395
258 Passing Yards 205
121 Rushing Yards 190
1.6 Sacks 1.9
1.3 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes267 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III75 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Rashee Rice5.7 rec, 73 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Xavier Worthy4.0 rec, 56 yds, 0.3 TD
ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.206 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson130 rush yds, 1.5 TD
REC Drake London5.8 rec, 76 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Kyle Pitts3.2 rec, 36 yds, 0.4 TD

Falcons by 4.6

The sim sides with Falcons: a 4.6-point edge and a 66% win rate over 50 runs (28-23).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 8.7 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Xavier Watts (Falcons) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 5.5 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Drake London (Falcons) vs Nohl Williams (Chiefs) - winner: Drake London, open on 60% of routes for 7.5/9.5, 67 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
  • Rashee Rice (Chiefs) vs Billy Bowman Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Rashee Rice, open on 60% of routes for 6.4/9.3, 52 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • The Chiefs' line should hold up: the Falcons win just 51% of their reps, mustering 4.6 sacks and 19.0 pressures a game, and Samson Ebukam (1.2 sacks, 5.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Chiefs may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 3.5 sacks a game (Felix Anudike-Uzomah (0.7 sacks, 4.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Drake London should find soft spots all day, open 60% of the time for 67 yds a game.
  • Through the air it is Rashee Rice's show for the Chiefs: 52 yds a game, open on 60% of routes.
  • Christian Roland-Wallace (Chiefs) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 41% of his coverage snaps, good for 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Falcons lean on Bijan Robinson, 15 carries for 130 yds a game at 8.7 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side.
  • On the ground, the Chiefs ride Kenneth Walker III: 14 carries, 75 yds a game (5.5 a carry), with the holes opening to the right side and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

ATL by 4.6 (66% to win) Projected total 52 pts Patrick Mahomes ~267 pass yds (250+ 60%) Bijan Robinson ~130 rush yds (70+ 86%) Drake London ~76 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 56%)