KC @ ATL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 10 slate
KC Chiefs
20
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
KC42%20
ATL58%24
24
ATL Falcons
BET VALUE
Lean ATL +4.5 +8.2 pts
MARKET KC -4.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

KC
ATL
42% Win Probability 58%
327 Total Yards 350
208 Passing Yards 204
120 Rushing Yards 146
2.0 Sacks 3.0
1.6 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes227 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III60 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Rashee Rice6.2 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Xavier Worthy3.3 rec, 47 yds, 0.2 TD
ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.209 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson105 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC Drake London5.6 rec, 73 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Kyle Pitts3.5 rec, 41 yds, 0.4 TD

Falcons by 3.7

The model leans Falcons by 3.7, winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 24-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.8 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Xavier Watts (Falcons) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 4.9 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Chris Jones (Chiefs) vs Matthew Bergeron (Falcons) - winner: Chris Jones, winning 56% of reps for 1.3 sacks and 2.6 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
In the Trenches
  • The Falcons get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (6.1 sacks a game), Jalon Walker (3.4 sacks, 8.9 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Chiefs — a 52% win rate yields only 3.9 sacks and 21.3 pressures a game, George Karlaftis (1.3 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Drake London is the go-to for the Falcons, separating on 56% of routes for 54 yds a game.
  • Rashee Rice headlines the Chiefs' receiving corps — 6.8 catches for 53 yds a game on 57% separation.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Kader Kohou (Chiefs): 39% separation allowed — and 0.5 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Falcons' run game leans on Bijan Robinson — 15 carries, 105 yds a game (6.8 a carry), with the holes opening off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • The Chiefs hand it to Kenneth Walker III early and often, 12 carries for 60 yds a game at 4.9 a carry, finding room off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim lineATL -3.7
Market lineKC -4.5
Sim total44
Market total45.5
ATL by 3.7 (58% to win) Projected total 44 pts Patrick Mahomes ~227 pass yds (250+ 38%) Bijan Robinson ~105 rush yds (70+ 74%) Drake London ~73 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 46%)