KC @ BUF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 12 slate
KC Chiefs
31
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
KC78%31
BUF22%21
21
BUF Bills
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take KC +2.5 +11.9 pts
MARKET BUF -2.5 · O/U 49.5

Projected Team Stats

KC
BUF
78% Win Probability 22%
434 Total Yards 324
245 Passing Yards 204
189 Rushing Yards 120
3.2 Sacks 3.3
0.9 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes249 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III112 rush yds, 1.5 TD
REC Rashee Rice6.2 rec, 80 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Xavier Worthy3.2 rec, 48 yds, 0.1 TD
BUF
PASS Josh Allen228 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH James Cook55 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DJ Moore5.2 rec, 64 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Dalton Kincaid3.1 rec, 44 yds, 0.3 TD

Chiefs by 9.4

The sim sides with Chiefs: a 9.4-point edge and a 78% win rate over 50 runs (31-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Joe Andreessen (Bills) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 8.8 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • DJ Moore (Bills) vs Mansoor Delane (Chiefs) - winner: Mansoor Delane, holding him to 45 yds on just 38% open, 0.6 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
  • Rashee Rice (Chiefs) vs Maxwell Hairston (Bills) - winner: Rashee Rice, open on 63% of routes for 6.2/9.7, 55 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Chiefs — a 51% win rate yields only 6.7 sacks and 32.0 pressures a game, George Karlaftis (2.9 sacks, 9.5 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Bills get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (6.5 sacks a game), with Greg Rousseau (3.3 sacks, 9.6 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Chiefs to feed Rashee Rice: 6.2 catches for 55 yds a game, open 63% of the time.
  • DJ Moore headlines the Bills' receiving corps — 5.8 catches for 45 yds a game on 38% separation.
  • Mansoor Delane (Chiefs) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 35% of routes — and 0.5 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Kenneth Walker III sets the tempo for the Chiefs — 112 yds a game on the ground at 8.8 a carry, with his best work off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • Expect a steady diet of James Cook: 55 yds a game at 4.1 a carry for the Bills, with the holes opening to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineKC -9.4
Market lineBUF -2.5
Sim total52
Market total49.5
KC by 9.4 (78% to win) Projected total 52 pts Patrick Mahomes ~249 pass yds (250+ 42%) Kenneth Walker III ~112 rush yds (70+ 74%) Rashee Rice ~80 rec yds, 6.2 rec (70+ 66%)