KC @ CIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
KC Chiefs
23
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
KC50%23
CIN50%23
23
CIN Bengals
BET VALUE
MARKET CIN -1.5 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

KC
CIN
50% Win Probability 50%
366 Total Yards 347
215 Passing Yards 295
151 Rushing Yards 52
3.0 Sacks 3.8
1.4 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes237 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III81 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Rashee Rice6.5 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Xavier Worthy4.2 rec, 54 yds, 0.3 TD
CIN
PASS Joe Burrow312 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Chase Brown33 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase7.5 rec, 91 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tee Higgins5.1 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD

Chiefs by 0.3

Run it 50 times and Chiefs win 50% of them, by 0.3 on average (23-23).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 5.9 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Chris Jones (Chiefs) vs Dylan Fairchild (Bengals) - winner: Chris Jones, winning 55% of reps for 2.0 sacks and 2.4 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Chiefs — a 51% win rate, 5.8 sacks and 24.9 pressures a game, and George Karlaftis (2.3 sacks, 9.7 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Bengals — a 49% win rate, 7.3 sacks and 31.9 pressures a game, and Boye Mafe (2.9 sacks, 10.0 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Chiefs' aerial attack runs through Rashee Rice (45 yds a game, open on 50% of routes).
  • The Bengals will live and die with Ja'Marr Chase, who comes open 56% of the time (79 yds a game).
  • In coverage, Bryan Cook (Bengals) travels and erases — only 36% separation allowed, good for 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Chiefs ride Kenneth Walker III: 14 carries, 81 yds a game (5.9 a carry), churning off the right edge and controlling the clock.
  • Chase Brown sets the tempo for the Bengals — 33 yds a game on the ground at 3.5 a carry.

Model vs Market

Sim lineKC -0.3
Market lineCIN -1.5
Sim total45
Market total48.5
KC by 0.3 (50% to win) Projected total 45 pts Joe Burrow ~312 pass yds (250+ 86%) Kenneth Walker III ~81 rush yds (70+ 62%) Ja'Marr Chase ~91 rec yds, 7.5 rec (70+ 68%)