KC @ DEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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KC Chiefs
18
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
KC26%18
DEN74%25
25
DEN Broncos
BET VALUE
Lean DEN -1.5 +5.7 pts
MARKET DEN -1.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

KC
DEN
26% Win Probability 74%
315 Total Yards 367
191 Passing Yards 247
124 Rushing Yards 121
2.1 Sacks 3.9
1.5 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes218 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III64 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Rashee Rice6.3 rec, 67 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Xavier Worthy3.6 rec, 43 yds, 0.1 TD
DEN
PASS Bo Nix246 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins57 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle5.7 rec, 74 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Courtland Sutton5.0 rec, 61 yds, 0.2 TD

Broncos by 7.2

Run it 50 times and Broncos win 74% of them, by 7.2 on average (25-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs Jaylon Moore (Chiefs) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 56% of reps for 2.9 sacks and 6.8 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Xavier Worthy (Chiefs) vs Pat Surtain II (Broncos) - winner: Pat Surtain II, holding him to 23 yds on just 37% open, 0.5 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 5.4 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Riley Moss (Broncos) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 4.8 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Broncos — a 49% win rate, 7.5 sacks and 33.2 pressures a game — Jonathon Cooper (2.2 sacks, 10.4 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Chiefs may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.0 sacks a game — George Karlaftis (1.9 sacks, 8.5 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Jaylen Waddle is the engine of the Broncos' passing game — 56 yds a game on 54% separation.
  • The Chiefs lean on Rashee Rice, good for 5.9 catches and 43 yds a game while breaking open on 44% of his routes.
  • Alohi Gilman (Chiefs) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 37% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Broncos ride J.K. Dobbins: 11 carries, 57 yds a game (5.4 a carry), finding room off the right edge and controlling the clock.
  • Expect a steady diet of Kenneth Walker III: 64 yds a game at 4.8 a carry for the Chiefs, doing his damage off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDEN -7.2
Market lineDEN -1.5
Sim total42
Market total43.5
DEN by 7.2 (74% to win) Projected total 42 pts Bo Nix ~246 pass yds (250+ 40%) Kenneth Walker III ~64 rush yds (70+ 32%) Jaylen Waddle ~74 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 42%)