KC @ LA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
KC Chiefs
17
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
KC16%17
LA84%30
30
LA Rams
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take LA -3.5 +10.1 pts
MARKET LA -3.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

KC
LA
16% Win Probability 84%
292 Total Yards 441
192 Passing Yards 310
100 Rushing Yards 131
2.5 Sacks 4.0
1.4 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes222 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III45 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Rashee Rice6.0 rec, 67 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Xavier Worthy3.3 rec, 42 yds, 0.1 TD
LA
PASS Matthew Stafford302 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams72 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Puka Nacua7.7 rec, 97 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Davante Adams5.2 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD

Rams by 13.6

Across 50 simulations, Rams come out on top 84% of the time by an average of 13.6 (30-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Mansoor Delane (Chiefs) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 64% of routes for 11.3/12.8, 89 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Rams — a 50% win rate yields only 7.6 sacks and 35.2 pressures a game, led by Myles Garrett (4.6 sacks, 11.8 pressures a game).
  • The Chiefs get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (5.0 sacks a game), with George Karlaftis (1.7 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Puka Nacua should find soft spots all day, open 64% of the time for 89 yds a game.
  • Through the air it is Rashee Rice's show for the Chiefs: 41 yds a game, open on 49% of routes.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Jaylen Watson (Rams): 42% separation allowed, adding 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Kyren Williams is the workhorse for the Rams, churning 72 yds a game at 4.5 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle.
  • Kenneth Walker III carries the load for the Chiefs, 12 carries for 45 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, with his best work to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -13.6
Market lineLA -3.5
Sim total47
Market total47.5
LA by 13.6 (84% to win) Projected total 47 pts Matthew Stafford ~302 pass yds (250+ 80%) Kyren Williams ~72 rush yds (70+ 54%) Puka Nacua ~97 rec yds, 7.7 rec (70+ 80%)