KC @ LAC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 17 slate
KC Chiefs
24
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
KC64%24
LAC36%19
19
LAC Chargers
BET VALUE
Lean KC +1.5 +6.2 pts
MARKET LAC -1.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

KC
LAC
64% Win Probability 36%
335 Total Yards 319
213 Passing Yards 198
122 Rushing Yards 121
2.8 Sacks 3.3
1.3 Turnovers 1.9

Projected Leaders

KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes229 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III61 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Rashee Rice6.1 rec, 69 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Xavier Worthy3.5 rec, 44 yds, 0.3 TD
LAC
PASS Justin Herbert215 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton58 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ladd McConkey4.9 rec, 55 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Quentin Johnston3.7 rec, 46 yds, 0.2 TD

Chiefs by 4.7

The model leans Chiefs by 4.7, winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 24-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 5.3 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Chris Jones (Chiefs) vs Jake Slaughter (Chargers) - winner: Chris Jones, winning 56% of reps for 1.5 sacks and 6.2 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Tony Jefferson (Chargers) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 4.7 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Chiefs — a 51% win rate, 5.7 sacks and 32.5 pressures a game (George Karlaftis (2.0 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Chargers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (6.8 sacks a game), with Tuli Tuipulotu (4.1 sacks, 9.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Chiefs will live and die with Rashee Rice, who comes open 54% of the time (45 yds a game).
  • Ladd McConkey is the go-to for the Chargers, separating on 48% of routes for 45 yds a game.
  • In coverage, Derwin James Jr. (Chargers) travels and erases — only 38% separation allowed, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Kenneth Walker III is the workhorse for the Chiefs, churning 61 yds a game at 4.7 a carry, doing his damage to the right side and controlling the clock.
  • Omarion Hampton carries the load for the Chargers, 11 carries for 58 yds a game at 5.3 a carry, churning off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim lineKC -4.7
Market lineLAC -1.5
Sim total42
Market total45.5
KC by 4.7 (64% to win) Projected total 42 pts Patrick Mahomes ~229 pass yds (250+ 30%) Kenneth Walker III ~61 rush yds (70+ 32%) Rashee Rice ~69 rec yds, 6.1 rec (70+ 46%)