KC @ LAC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 17 slate
KC Chiefs
20
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
KC70%20
LAC30%13
13
LAC Chargers

Projected Team Stats

KC
LAC
70% Win Probability 30%
327 Total Yards 284
215 Passing Yards 192
112 Rushing Yards 91
3.5 Sacks 2.5
1.0 Turnovers 1.8

Projected Leaders

KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes223 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III76 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Rashee Rice5.5 rec, 69 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Xavier Worthy3.4 rec, 44 yds, 0.2 TD
LAC
PASS Justin Herbert218 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton37 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Ladd McConkey4.9 rec, 65 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tre Harris3.8 rec, 49 yds, 0.1 TD

Chiefs by 7.1

Chiefs are the pick here, favoured by 7.1 and winning 70% of 50 sims (projected 20-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Derwin James Jr. (Chargers) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 5.4 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Drue Tranquill, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Chiefs — a 52% win rate yields only 6.6 sacks and 35.5 pressures a game, with Felix Anudike-Uzomah (2.5 sacks, 9.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Chargers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.2 sacks a game — Tuli Tuipulotu (3.3 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Rashee Rice is the engine of the Chiefs' passing game — 49 yds a game on 50% separation.
  • Look for Ladd McConkey to eat: 5.2 catches and 45 yds a game for the Chargers.
  • In coverage, Nohl Williams (Chiefs) travels and erases — only 37% separation allowed — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Kenneth Walker III sets the tempo for the Chiefs — 76 yds a game on the ground at 5.4 a carry, finding room to the right side and moving the chains.
  • Omarion Hampton is the workhorse for the Chargers, churning 37 yds a game at 3.0 a carry, with his best work off right tackle against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

KC by 7.1 (70% to win) Projected total 34 pts Patrick Mahomes ~223 pass yds (250+ 34%) Kenneth Walker III ~76 rush yds (70+ 54%) Rashee Rice ~69 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 48%)