KC @ LV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 4 slate
KC Chiefs
23
PROJECTION
Week 4 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
KC68%23
LV32%17
17
LV Raiders
BET VALUE
MARKET KC -5.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

KC
LV
68% Win Probability 32%
356 Total Yards 300
222 Passing Yards 228
134 Rushing Yards 72
1.5 Sacks 2.6
1.2 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes232 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III66 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Rashee Rice6.3 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Xavier Worthy3.3 rec, 45 yds, 0.2 TD
LV
PASS Kirk Cousins236 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty44 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tre Tucker5.6 rec, 64 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.6 rec, 50 yds, 0.5 TD

Chiefs by 6.5

The model leans Chiefs by 6.5, winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 23-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs Mansoor Delane (Chiefs) - winner: Mansoor Delane, holding him to 47 yds on just 40% open, 0.7 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 5.6 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Chris Jones (Chiefs) vs Spencer Burford (Raiders) - winner: Chris Jones, winning 60% of reps for 2.6 sacks and 0.6 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Drue Tranquill, holding him to 3.3 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
In the Trenches
  • The Raiders' line should hold up: the Chiefs win just 52% of their reps, mustering 3.2 sacks and 8.2 pressures a game, and Chris Jones (2.6 sacks, 0.6 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Raiders may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 5.8 sacks a game — Maxx Crosby (3.7 sacks, 9.5 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Chiefs' aerial attack runs through Rashee Rice (51 yds a game, open on 51% of routes).
  • The Raiders lean on Tre Tucker, good for 6.1 catches and 47 yds a game while breaking open on 40% of his routes.
  • Few balls get past Mansoor Delane (Chiefs), who yields separation on 37% of routes, good for 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Kenneth Walker III is the workhorse for the Chiefs, churning 66 yds a game at 5.6 a carry, with his best work off right tackle and controlling the clock.
  • The Raiders lean on Ashton Jeanty, 14 carries for 44 yds a game at 3.3 a carry, finding room off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineKC -6.5
Market lineKC -5.5
Sim total40
Market total43.5
KC by 6.5 (68% to win) Projected total 40 pts Kirk Cousins ~236 pass yds (250+ 36%) Kenneth Walker III ~66 rush yds (70+ 40%) Rashee Rice ~73 rec yds, 6.3 rec (70+ 54%)