KC @ MIA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 3 slate
KC Chiefs
25
PROJECTION
Week 3 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
KC54%25
MIA46%22
22
MIA Dolphins
BET VALUE
MARKET KC -7 · O/U 44.5

Projected Team Stats

KC
MIA
54% Win Probability 46%
365 Total Yards 321
238 Passing Yards 194
127 Rushing Yards 127
2.9 Sacks 3.4
1.0 Turnovers 0.7

Projected Leaders

KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes253 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III66 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Rashee Rice6.4 rec, 79 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Xavier Worthy3.8 rec, 55 yds, 0.4 TD
MIA
PASS Malik Willis214 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane88 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Malik Washington4.5 rec, 49 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Greg Dulcich3.2 rec, 34 yds, 0.2 TD

Chiefs by 2.7

Across 50 simulations, Chiefs come out on top 54% of the time by an average of 2.7 (25-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: De'Von Achane, 6.8 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Mansoor Delane (Chiefs) - winner: Mansoor Delane, holding him to 28 yds on just 34% open, 0.8 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Zayne Anderson (Dolphins) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 6.0 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Peter Woods (Chiefs) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Peter Woods, winning 56% of reps for 0.3 sacks and 6.1 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Rashee Rice (Chiefs) vs Storm Duck (Dolphins) - winner: Rashee Rice, open on 59% of routes for 6.4/10.2, 56 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Chiefs — a 52% win rate, 5.6 sacks and 32.3 pressures a game (George Karlaftis (2.6 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Chiefs' quarterback should have time; the Dolphins win just 49% of reps for 6.3 sacks a game, Chop Robinson (2.4 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Chiefs to feed Rashee Rice: 6.4 catches for 56 yds a game, open 59% of the time.
  • Malik Washington is the go-to for the Dolphins, separating on 34% of routes for 28 yds a game.
  • Few balls get past Mansoor Delane (Chiefs), who yields separation on 33% of routes, adding 0.8 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Kenneth Walker III: 66 yds a game at 6.0 a carry for the Chiefs, with the holes opening off right tackle.
  • De'Von Achane sets the tempo for the Dolphins — 88 yds a game on the ground at 6.8 a carry, finding room off right tackle and moving the chains.

Model vs Market

Sim lineKC -2.7
Market lineKC -7
Sim total47
Market total44.5
KC by 2.7 (54% to win) Projected total 47 pts Patrick Mahomes ~253 pass yds (250+ 50%) De'Von Achane ~88 rush yds (70+ 60%) Rashee Rice ~79 rec yds, 6.4 rec (70+ 52%)