KC @ SEA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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KC Chiefs
20
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
KC36%20
SEA64%24
24
SEA Seahawks
BET VALUE
MARKET SEA -3 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

KC
SEA
36% Win Probability 64%
343 Total Yards 336
212 Passing Yards 212
131 Rushing Yards 125
1.7 Sacks 3.9
1.5 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes236 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III69 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rashee Rice6.2 rec, 66 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Xavier Worthy3.8 rec, 48 yds, 0.4 TD
SEA
PASS Sam Darnold215 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet71 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba4.8 rec, 66 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Cooper Kupp4.6 rec, 53 yds, 0.3 TD

Seahawks by 4.7

The sim sides with Seahawks: a 4.7-point edge and a 64% win rate over 50 runs (24-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Tyrice Knight (Seahawks) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 5.0 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Chris Jones (Chiefs) vs Grey Zabel (Seahawks) - winner: Chris Jones, winning 56% of reps for 1.9 sacks and 1.8 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Mansoor Delane (Chiefs) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 61% of routes for 7.0/7.9, 61 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • The Chiefs' quarterback should have time; the Seahawks win just 49% of reps for 7.2 sacks a game, led by Uchenna Nwosu (2.4 sacks, 9.2 pressures a game).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Chiefs — a 52% win rate yields only 3.6 sacks and 15.2 pressures a game, George Karlaftis (0.9 sacks, 5.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the engine of the Seahawks' passing game — 61 yds a game on 61% separation.
  • Rashee Rice is the go-to for the Chiefs, separating on 45% of routes for 37 yds a game.
  • Few balls get past Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks), who yields separation on 36% of routes, adding 1.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Seahawks lean on Zach Charbonnet, 17 carries for 71 yds a game at 4.3 a carry, with his best work off the right edge.
  • On the ground, the Chiefs ride Kenneth Walker III: 14 carries, 69 yds a game (5.0 a carry), churning to the right side and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSEA -4.7
Market lineSEA -3
Sim total44
Market total45.5
SEA by 4.7 (64% to win) Projected total 44 pts Patrick Mahomes ~236 pass yds (250+ 38%) Zach Charbonnet ~71 rush yds (70+ 48%) Jaxon Smith-Njigba ~66 rec yds, 4.8 rec (70+ 44%)