KC @ SEA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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KC Chiefs
19
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
KC42%19
SEA58%19
19
SEA Seahawks
BET VALUE
MARKET SEA -1.5 · O/U 42.5

Projected Team Stats

KC
SEA
42% Win Probability 58%
327 Total Yards 316
205 Passing Yards 235
122 Rushing Yards 81
2.5 Sacks 2.2
1.3 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes215 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III79 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Rashee Rice5.6 rec, 60 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Travis Kelce3.7 rec, 42 yds, 0.2 TD
SEA
PASS Sam Darnold252 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Emanuel Wilson40 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba6.7 rec, 94 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Cooper Kupp3.7 rec, 48 yds, 0.3 TD

Seahawks by 0.6

Seahawks are the pick here, favoured by 0.6 and winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 19-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Tyrice Knight (Seahawks) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 5.8 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Drue Tranquill, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Nohl Williams (Chiefs) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 62% of routes for 9.0/10.9, 83 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Chiefs' quarterback should have time; the Seahawks win just 49% of reps for 4.1 sacks a game, led by DeMarcus Lawrence (1.5 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Chiefs — a 50% win rate yields only 4.9 sacks and 26.4 pressures a game, Felix Anudike-Uzomah (1.7 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the engine of the Seahawks' passing game — 83 yds a game on 62% separation.
  • Rashee Rice is the go-to for the Chiefs, separating on 46% of routes for 43 yds a game.
  • Few balls get past Julian Love (Seahawks), who yields separation on 33% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Emanuel Wilson carries the load for the Seahawks, 14 carries for 40 yds a game at 2.8 a carry with tough sledding.
  • The Chiefs' run game leans on Kenneth Walker III — 14 carries, 79 yds a game (5.8 a carry), doing his damage to the right side and moving the chains.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSEA -0.6
Market lineSEA -1.5
Sim total38
Market total42.5
SEA by 0.6 (58% to win) Projected total 38 pts Sam Darnold ~252 pass yds (250+ 54%) Kenneth Walker III ~79 rush yds (70+ 52%) Jaxon Smith-Njigba ~94 rec yds, 6.7 rec (70+ 62%)