LA @ ARZ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LA Rams
34
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LA94%34
ARZ6%14
14
ARZ Cardinals
BET VALUE
Lean LA -10.5 +8.6 pts
MARKET LA -10.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

LA
ARZ
94% Win Probability 6%
462 Total Yards 275
316 Passing Yards 213
146 Rushing Yards 63
5.0 Sacks 2.3
1.3 Turnovers 1.8

Projected Leaders

LA
PASS Matthew Stafford283 pass yds, 2.3 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams82 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Davante Adams5.7 rec, 90 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Puka Nacua6.4 rec, 86 yds, 0.5 TD
ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett249 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love35 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.5.2 rec, 67 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Michael Wilson5.0 rec, 60 yds, 0.3 TD

Rams by 19.1

Rams are the pick here, favoured by 19.1 and winning 94% of 50 sims (projected 34-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 39 yds on just 37% open, 0.9 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Owen Pappoe (Cardinals) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.8 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Garrett Williams (Cardinals) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 64% of routes for 8.8/11.1, 75 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Kamren Curl (Rams) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 4.8 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Davante Adams (Rams) vs Denzel Burke (Cardinals) - winner: Davante Adams, open on 59% of routes for 5.5/8.1, 56 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Rams may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 9.0 sacks a game — Myles Garrett (5.2 sacks, 11.9 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Cardinals get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (5.1 sacks a game), Josh Sweat (3.4 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • The Rams' aerial attack runs through Puka Nacua (75 yds a game, open on 64% of routes).
  • Look for Marvin Harrison Jr. to eat: 5.1 catches and 39 yds a game for the Cardinals.
  • In coverage, Trent McDuffie (Rams) travels and erases — only 34% separation allowed with 0.8 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Kyren Williams is the workhorse for the Rams, churning 82 yds a game at 4.8 a carry, churning off the right edge and controlling the clock.
  • Jeremiyah Love carries the load for the Cardinals, 7 carries for 35 yds a game at 4.8 a carry, churning off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -19.1
Market lineLA -10.5
Sim total48
Market total47.5
LA by 19.1 (94% to win) Projected total 48 pts Matthew Stafford ~283 pass yds (250+ 66%) Kyren Williams ~82 rush yds (70+ 58%) Davante Adams ~90 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 62%)