LA @ DEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LA Rams
26
PROJECTION
LA 26 – DEN 30
Week 3 50-sim average Sun 27 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
LA80%26 26
DEN20%16 30
16
DEN Broncos
✗ RESULT DEN by 4 model LA by 10.1, off by 14.1
✗ VALUE LA -2.5 LOSS line at publish LA -2.5
✗ TOTAL 56 pts OVER O/U 45.5, model 42 lean under

Projected Team Stats

LA
DEN
80% Win Probability 20%
412 Total Yards 296
265 Passing Yards 210
147 Rushing Yards 86
2.2 Sacks 2.4
1.3 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

LA
PASS Matthew Stafford258 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams82 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Puka Nacua6.7 rec, 83 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Davante Adams5.4 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
DEN
PASS Bo Nix224 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins46 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle6.4 rec, 80 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Courtland Sutton3.2 rec, 35 yds, 0.2 TD

Rams by 10.1

The model leans Rams by 10.1, winning 80% of 50 sims (projected 26-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Red Murdock (Broncos) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.1 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs Alaric Jackson (Rams) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 55% of reps for 2.3 sacks and 4.9 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
In the Trenches
  • The Rams may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 5.0 sacks a game (Byron Young (1.8 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Rams' line should hold up: the Broncos win just 50% of their reps, mustering 4.8 sacks and 18.4 pressures a game (Nik Bonitto (2.3 sacks, 4.9 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Puka Nacua's show for the Rams: 66 yds a game, open on 57% of routes.
  • Jaylen Waddle is the engine of the Broncos' passing game — 60 yds a game on 47% separation.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Trent McDuffie (Rams): 40% separation allowed — and 0.5 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Kyren Williams: 82 yds a game at 5.1 a carry for the Rams, churning off the right edge.
  • J.K. Dobbins sets the tempo for the Broncos — 46 yds a game on the ground at 4.4 a carry, churning off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -10.1
Market lineLA -2.5
Sim total42
Market total45.5
LA by 10.1 (80% to win) Projected total 42 pts Matthew Stafford ~258 pass yds (250+ 54%) Kyren Williams ~82 rush yds (70+ 56%) Puka Nacua ~83 rec yds, 6.7 rec (70+ 64%)