LA @ DEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LA Rams
28
PROJECTION
Week 3 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LA74%28
DEN26%19
19
DEN Broncos
BET VALUE
Lean LA -2.5 +6.5 pts
MARKET LA -2.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

LA
DEN
74% Win Probability 26%
425 Total Yards 329
285 Passing Yards 240
139 Rushing Yards 89
3.3 Sacks 2.5
1.7 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

LA
PASS Matthew Stafford283 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams82 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Puka Nacua7.1 rec, 90 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Davante Adams5.9 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
DEN
PASS Bo Nix261 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins46 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle6.0 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Courtland Sutton5.4 rec, 67 yds, 0.1 TD

Rams by 9.0

The sim sides with Rams: a 9.0-point edge and a 74% win rate over 50 runs (28-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Taurean York (Broncos) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.7 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Rams — a 51% win rate yields only 6.7 sacks and 28.3 pressures a game, with Myles Garrett (4.1 sacks, 9.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Broncos get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (5.2 sacks a game), led by Nik Bonitto (2.2 sacks, 5.6 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Puka Nacua should find soft spots all day, open 57% of the time for 76 yds a game.
  • Expect the Broncos to feed Jaylen Waddle: 6.8 catches for 57 yds a game, open 57% of the time.
  • On the back end, Kamren Kinchens (Rams) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 27% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Kyren Williams carries the load for the Rams, 17 carries for 82 yds a game at 4.7 a carry, finding room to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
  • J.K. Dobbins is the workhorse for the Broncos, churning 46 yds a game at 4.1 a carry, finding room to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -9.0
Market lineLA -2.5
Sim total47
Market total45.5
LA by 9.0 (74% to win) Projected total 47 pts Matthew Stafford ~283 pass yds (250+ 72%) Kyren Williams ~82 rush yds (70+ 74%) Puka Nacua ~90 rec yds, 7.1 rec (70+ 68%)