LA @ LV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LA Rams
31
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
LA88%31
LV12%17
17
LV Raiders
BET VALUE
Lean LA -5.5 +8.4 pts
MARKET LA -5.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

LA
LV
88% Win Probability 12%
459 Total Yards 288
321 Passing Yards 236
138 Rushing Yards 52
1.5 Sacks 2.1
1.2 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

LA
PASS Matthew Stafford306 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams80 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Davante Adams6.0 rec, 95 yds, 0.8 TD
REC Puka Nacua7.1 rec, 94 yds, 0.6 TD
LV
PASS Kirk Cousins247 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty25 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Tre Tucker5.6 rec, 66 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.5 rec, 55 yds, 0.3 TD

Rams by 13.9

Run it 50 times and Rams win 88% of them, by 13.9 on average (31-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 46 yds on just 34% open, 1.1 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Emmanuel Forbes (Rams) - winner: Emmanuel Forbes, holding him to 1.9 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.4 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Jalen Nailor (Raiders) vs Jaylen Watson (Rams) - winner: Jaylen Watson, holding him to 22 yds on just 36% open, 0.6 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Aaron Donald (Rams) vs Spencer Burford (Raiders) - winner: Aaron Donald, winning 58% of reps for 2.3 sacks and 1.9 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Rams — a 52% win rate yields only 3.6 sacks and 14.1 pressures a game, led by Aaron Donald (2.3 sacks, 1.9 pressures a game).
  • The Raiders get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.3 sacks a game), Maxx Crosby (3.2 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Puka Nacua should find soft spots all day, open 64% of the time for 77 yds a game.
  • The Raiders lean on Tre Tucker, good for 6.1 catches and 46 yds a game while breaking open on 34% of his routes.
  • In coverage, Trent McDuffie (Rams) travels and erases — only 29% separation allowed, good for 1.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Kyren Williams sets the tempo for the Rams — 80 yds a game on the ground at 5.4 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge and moving the chains.
  • The Raiders hand it to Ashton Jeanty early and often, 13 carries for 25 yds a game at 1.9 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -13.9
Market lineLA -5.5
Sim total47
Market total47.5
LA by 13.9 (88% to win) Projected total 47 pts Matthew Stafford ~306 pass yds (250+ 76%) Kyren Williams ~80 rush yds (70+ 58%) Davante Adams ~95 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 72%)