LA @ LV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LA Rams
31
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LA88%31
LV12%15
15
LV Raiders
BET VALUE
Lean LA -7.5 +8.1 pts
MARKET LA -7.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

LA
LV
88% Win Probability 12%
437 Total Yards 305
292 Passing Yards 247
145 Rushing Yards 59
1.6 Sacks 1.9
1.3 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

LA
PASS Matthew Stafford276 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams86 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Puka Nacua6.8 rec, 91 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Davante Adams4.5 rec, 71 yds, 0.5 TD
LV
PASS Kirk Cousins257 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty32 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tre Tucker6.4 rec, 74 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.8 rec, 51 yds, 0.2 TD

Rams by 15.6

Across 50 simulations, Rams come out on top 88% of the time by an average of 15.6 (31-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 48 yds on just 36% open, 0.8 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.5 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Kamren Curl (Rams) - winner: Kamren Curl, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Myles Garrett (Rams) vs DJ Glaze (Raiders) - winner: Myles Garrett, winning 57% of reps for 3.3 sacks and 5.2 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Eric Stokes (Raiders) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 64% of routes for 9.1/11.2, 86 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Rams — a 53% win rate yields only 3.8 sacks and 11.1 pressures a game, led by Myles Garrett (3.3 sacks, 5.2 pressures a game).
  • The Rams' quarterback should have time; the Raiders win just 49% of reps for 3.8 sacks a game, Maxx Crosby (3.0 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • The Rams' aerial attack runs through Puka Nacua (86 yds a game, open on 64% of routes).
  • Tre Tucker is the go-to for the Raiders, separating on 36% of routes for 48 yds a game.
  • On the back end, Kamren Kinchens (Rams) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 28% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Kyren Williams carries the load for the Rams, 16 carries for 86 yds a game at 5.5 a carry, churning off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • The Raiders' run game leans on Ashton Jeanty — 14 carries, 32 yds a game (2.4 a carry) into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -15.6
Market lineLA -7.5
Sim total46
Market total46.5
LA by 15.6 (88% to win) Projected total 46 pts Matthew Stafford ~276 pass yds (250+ 62%) Kyren Williams ~86 rush yds (70+ 70%) Puka Nacua ~91 rec yds, 6.8 rec (70+ 76%)