LA @ PHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 4 slate
LA Rams
23
PROJECTION
Week 4 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LA64%23
PHI36%17
17
PHI Eagles
BET VALUE
MARKET LA -1.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

LA
PHI
64% Win Probability 36%
388 Total Yards 300
266 Passing Yards 201
122 Rushing Yards 99
3.7 Sacks 2.5
1.4 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

LA
PASS Matthew Stafford270 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams73 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Puka Nacua7.1 rec, 94 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Davante Adams4.7 rec, 59 yds, 0.2 TD
PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts227 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley48 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Makai Lemon4.9 rec, 62 yds, 0.2 TD
REC DeVonta Smith4.5 rec, 59 yds, 0.3 TD

Rams by 6.0

The model leans Rams by 6.0, winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 23-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • DeVonta Smith (Eagles) vs Emmanuel Forbes (Rams) - winner: DeVonta Smith, open on 58% of routes for 6.8/8.3, 52 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Rams — a 51% win rate, 6.8 sacks and 35.6 pressures a game, and Myles Garrett (3.9 sacks, 9.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Rams' quarterback should have time; the Eagles win just 51% of reps for 5.1 sacks a game, Jonathan Greenard (1.8 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Puka Nacua is the engine of the Rams' passing game — 76 yds a game on 54% separation.
  • DeVonta Smith headlines the Eagles' receiving corps — 6.8 catches for 52 yds a game on 58% separation.
  • Jihaad Campbell (Eagles) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 42% of his coverage snaps — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Rams hand it to Kyren Williams early and often, 16 carries for 73 yds a game at 4.5 a carry, churning off right tackle.
  • Saquon Barkley sets the tempo for the Eagles — 48 yds a game on the ground at 3.6 a carry, finding room off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -6.0
Market lineLA -1.5
Sim total40
Market total47.5
LA by 6.0 (64% to win) Projected total 40 pts Matthew Stafford ~270 pass yds (250+ 68%) Kyren Williams ~73 rush yds (70+ 44%) Puka Nacua ~94 rec yds, 7.1 rec (70+ 74%)