LA @ PHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LA Rams
24
PROJECTION
LA 24 – PHI 20
Week 4 50-sim average Sun 4 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
LA70%24 24
PHI30%17 20
17
PHI Eagles
✓ RESULT LA by 4 model LA by 7.1, off by 3.1
✓ SPREAD LA -3 WIN line at publish LA -3
✗ TOTAL 44 pts OVER O/U 43, model 41 lean under

Projected Team Stats

LA
PHI
70% Win Probability 30%
390 Total Yards 284
268 Passing Yards 194
121 Rushing Yards 90
2.8 Sacks 2.0
1.6 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

LA
PASS Matthew Stafford271 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams77 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Puka Nacua7.0 rec, 91 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Davante Adams4.8 rec, 70 yds, 0.4 TD
PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts214 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley40 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DeVonta Smith5.0 rec, 64 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Dontayvion Wicks2.6 rec, 34 yds, 0.1 TD

Rams by 7.1

The model leans Rams by 7.1, winning 70% of 50 sims (projected 24-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Jihaad Campbell (Eagles) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.0 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Aaron Donald (Rams) vs Cam Jurgens (Eagles) - winner: Aaron Donald, winning 57% of reps for 1.2 sacks and 7.4 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 60% of routes for 9.1/12.2, 75 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Eagles' line should hold up: the Rams win just 52% of their reps, mustering 5.8 sacks and 35.2 pressures a game, and Byron Young (2.2 sacks, 8.8 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Eagles get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (4.1 sacks a game), led by Jonathan Greenard (3.0 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Look for Puka Nacua to eat: 9.1 catches and 75 yds a game for the Rams.
  • Look for DeVonta Smith to eat: 6.4 catches and 51 yds a game for the Eagles.
  • Trent McDuffie (Rams) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 38% of routes with 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Rams ride Kyren Williams: 15 carries, 77 yds a game (5.0 a carry), doing his damage to the right side and controlling the clock.
  • The Eagles lean on Saquon Barkley, 11 carries for 40 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -7.1
Market lineLA -3
Sim total41
Market total43
LA by 7.1 (70% to win) Projected total 41 pts Matthew Stafford ~271 pass yds (250+ 62%) Kyren Williams ~77 rush yds (70+ 68%) Puka Nacua ~91 rec yds, 7.0 rec (70+ 66%)