LA @ SEA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 16 slate
LA Rams
24
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
LA84%24
SEA16%16
16
SEA Seahawks

Projected Team Stats

LA
SEA
84% Win Probability 16%
398 Total Yards 258
281 Passing Yards 205
117 Rushing Yards 53
2.6 Sacks 1.9
1.3 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

LA
PASS Matthew Stafford285 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams75 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Puka Nacua7.7 rec, 96 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Davante Adams5.4 rec, 70 yds, 0.5 TD
SEA
PASS Sam Darnold223 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Emanuel Wilson25 rush yds
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba6.8 rec, 83 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Cooper Kupp3.6 rec, 40 yds, 0.1 TD

Rams by 8.1

Run it 50 times and Rams win 84% of them, by 8.1 on average (24-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) vs Emmanuel Forbes (Rams) - winner: Emmanuel Forbes, holding him to 1.7 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Tyrice Knight (Seahawks) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.8 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 58% of routes for 10.1/13.9, 77 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • The Seahawks' line should hold up: the Rams win just 51% of their reps, mustering 5.2 sacks and 30.7 pressures a game — Byron Young (1.9 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) out front.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Seahawks — a 49% win rate yields only 4.2 sacks and 14.4 pressures a game, with DeMarcus Lawrence (0.8 sacks, 5.6 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Puka Nacua is the engine of the Rams' passing game — 77 yds a game on 58% separation.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba headlines the Seahawks' receiving corps — 8.4 catches for 66 yds a game on 53% separation.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Quentin Lake (Rams): 38% separation allowed with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Rams ride Kyren Williams: 16 carries, 75 yds a game (4.8 a carry), churning off the right edge and controlling the clock.
  • Emanuel Wilson carries the load for the Seahawks, 15 carries for 25 yds a game at 1.7 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

LA by 8.1 (84% to win) Projected total 41 pts Matthew Stafford ~285 pass yds (250+ 66%) Kyren Williams ~75 rush yds (70+ 48%) Puka Nacua ~96 rec yds, 7.7 rec (70+ 72%)