LA @ SF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
LA Rams
35
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LA90%35
SF10%20
20
SF 49ers
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take LA -1.5 +14.2 pts
MARKET LA -1.5 · O/U 49.5

Projected Team Stats

LA
SF
90% Win Probability 10%
465 Total Yards 328
303 Passing Yards 244
163 Rushing Yards 84
3.6 Sacks 2.1
1.4 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

LA
PASS Matthew Stafford278 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams91 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Puka Nacua7.2 rec, 94 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Davante Adams5.4 rec, 79 yds, 0.6 TD
SF
PASS Brock Purdy268 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey44 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Mike Evans4.7 rec, 66 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ricky Pearsall3.6 rec, 51 yds, 0.3 TD

Rams by 15.7

Rams are the pick here, favoured by 15.7 and winning 90% of 50 sims (projected 35-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Myles Garrett (Rams) vs Colton McKivitz (49ers) - winner: Myles Garrett, winning 55% of reps for 4.4 sacks and 11.3 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.4 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Christian McCaffrey (49ers) vs Emmanuel Forbes (Rams) - winner: Emmanuel Forbes, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Mike Evans (49ers) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 42 yds on just 40% open, 0.4 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 65% of routes for 9.4/11.9, 83 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Rams — a 53% win rate yields only 7.7 sacks and 39.6 pressures a game, with Myles Garrett (4.4 sacks, 11.3 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Rams' line should hold up: the 49ers win just 50% of their reps, mustering 4.5 sacks and 18.4 pressures a game (Nick Bosa (2.3 sacks, 5.0 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Expect the Rams to feed Puka Nacua: 9.4 catches for 83 yds a game, open 65% of the time.
  • The 49ers will live and die with Mike Evans, who comes open 40% of the time (42 yds a game).
  • Trent McDuffie (Rams) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 37% of his coverage snaps, good for 0.4 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Kyren Williams sets the tempo for the Rams — 91 yds a game on the ground at 5.4 a carry, with his best work off the right edge and moving the chains.
  • The 49ers lean on Christian McCaffrey, 16 carries for 44 yds a game at 2.8 a carry.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -15.7
Market lineLA -1.5
Sim total55
Market total49.5
LA by 15.7 (90% to win) Projected total 55 pts Matthew Stafford ~278 pass yds (250+ 64%) Kyren Williams ~91 rush yds (70+ 76%) Puka Nacua ~94 rec yds, 7.2 rec (70+ 66%)