LA @ TB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 17 slate
LA Rams
34
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LA94%34
TB6%14
14
TB Buccaneers
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take LA -3.5 +15.9 pts
MARKET LA -3.5 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

LA
TB
94% Win Probability 6%
431 Total Yards 272
287 Passing Yards 208
143 Rushing Yards 64
2.9 Sacks 2.2
0.9 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

LA
PASS Matthew Stafford259 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams75 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Puka Nacua6.7 rec, 89 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Davante Adams5.1 rec, 81 yds, 0.5 TD
TB
PASS Baker Mayfield229 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Baker Mayfield24 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Chris Godwin5.2 rec, 60 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka3.7 rec, 44 yds, 0.2 TD

Rams by 19.4

The model leans Rams by 19.4, winning 94% of 50 sims (projected 34-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Emmanuel Forbes (Rams) - winner: Emmanuel Forbes, holding him to 1.5 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.9 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Jacob Parrish (Buccaneers) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 65% of routes for 9.4/11.5, 78 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Buccaneers' line should hold up: the Rams win just 52% of their reps, mustering 5.8 sacks and 29.4 pressures a game (Myles Garrett (3.5 sacks, 9.7 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Buccaneers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.7 sacks a game), led by Yaya Diaby (2.0 sacks, 4.3 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Puka Nacua is the engine of the Rams' passing game — 78 yds a game on 65% separation.
  • Chris Godwin headlines the Buccaneers' receiving corps — 5.4 catches for 43 yds a game on 53% separation.
  • In coverage, Kamren Curl (Rams) travels and erases — only 37% separation allowed — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Kyren Williams: 75 yds a game at 4.9 a carry for the Rams, finding room off right tackle.
  • The Buccaneers hand it to Bucky Irving early and often, 13 carries for 19 yds a game at 1.5 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -19.4
Market lineLA -3.5
Sim total48
Market total48.5
LA by 19.4 (94% to win) Projected total 48 pts Matthew Stafford ~259 pass yds (250+ 56%) Kyren Williams ~75 rush yds (70+ 48%) Puka Nacua ~89 rec yds, 6.7 rec (70+ 70%)