LA @ WAS Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 9 slate
LA Rams
34
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LA98%34
WAS2%14
14
WAS Commanders
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take LA -4.5 +16.0 pts
MARKET LA -4.5 · O/U 50.5

Projected Team Stats

LA
WAS
98% Win Probability 2%
462 Total Yards 217
311 Passing Yards 157
152 Rushing Yards 60
3.6 Sacks 2.1
1.2 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

LA
PASS Matthew Stafford288 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams82 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Puka Nacua7.1 rec, 95 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Davante Adams4.9 rec, 77 yds, 0.5 TD
WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels185 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt34 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Terry McLaurin3.9 rec, 57 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Antonio Williams3.2 rec, 33 yds

Rams by 20.5

Rams are the pick here, favoured by 20.5 and winning 98% of 50 sims (projected 34-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.0 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) vs Kamren Curl (Rams) - winner: Kamren Curl, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Trey Amos (Commanders) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 63% of routes for 8.7/11.6, 78 yds a game - separation all day.
  • Davante Adams (Rams) vs Mike Sainristil (Commanders) - winner: Davante Adams, open on 67% of routes for 5.4/7.7, 54 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • The Commanders' quarterback should have time; the Rams win just 51% of reps for 7.3 sacks a game, Myles Garrett (4.1 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Commanders — a 49% win rate, 4.1 sacks and 17.4 pressures a game, and Odafe Oweh (3.0 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Puka Nacua is the go-to for the Rams, separating on 63% of routes for 78 yds a game.
  • Expect the Commanders to feed Terry McLaurin: 5.1 catches for 49 yds a game, open 51% of the time.
  • On the back end, Kamren Curl (Rams) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 37% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Kyren Williams carries the load for the Rams, 16 carries for 82 yds a game at 5.0 a carry, finding room off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • The Commanders lean on Jacory Croskey-Merritt, 13 carries for 34 yds a game at 2.7 a carry.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -20.5
Market lineLA -4.5
Sim total48
Market total50.5
LA by 20.5 (98% to win) Projected total 48 pts Matthew Stafford ~288 pass yds (250+ 72%) Kyren Williams ~82 rush yds (70+ 64%) Puka Nacua ~95 rec yds, 7.1 rec (70+ 62%)