LAC @ BLT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LAC Chargers
19
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LAC58%19
BLT42%17
17
BLT Ravens
BET VALUE
MARKET BLT -2.5 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

LAC
BLT
58% Win Probability 42%
305 Total Yards 303
206 Passing Yards 180
99 Rushing Yards 123
2.2 Sacks 2.6
1.2 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

LAC
PASS Justin Herbert216 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton43 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ladd McConkey5.2 rec, 60 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Quentin Johnston4.1 rec, 49 yds, 0.2 TD
BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson196 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry71 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.8 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.3 rec, 29 yds, 0.1 TD

Chargers by 2.8

The model leans Chargers by 2.8, winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 19-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
In the Trenches
  • The Chargers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.7 sacks a game), Tuli Tuipulotu (2.6 sacks, 6.8 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Chargers' line should hold up: the Ravens win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.0 sacks and 30.1 pressures a game, and Tavius Robinson (1.1 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Ladd McConkey is the go-to for the Chargers, separating on 50% of routes for 41 yds a game.
  • The Ravens lean on Zay Flowers, good for 6.2 catches and 59 yds a game while breaking open on 57% of his routes.
  • Few balls get past Kyle Hamilton (Ravens), who yields separation on 35% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Omarion Hampton is the workhorse for the Chargers, churning 43 yds a game at 4.3 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.
  • The Ravens lean on Derrick Henry, 16 carries for 71 yds a game at 4.4 a carry, finding room off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLAC -2.8
Market lineBLT -2.5
Sim total36
Market total48.5
LAC by 2.8 (58% to win) Projected total 36 pts Justin Herbert ~216 pass yds (250+ 20%) Derrick Henry ~71 rush yds (70+ 48%) Zay Flowers ~70 rec yds, 4.8 rec (70+ 42%)