LAC @ BUF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LAC Chargers
30
PROJECTION
Week 3 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LAC66%30
BUF34%24
24
BUF Bills
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take LAC +2.5 +9.0 pts
MARKET BUF -2.5 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

LAC
BUF
66% Win Probability 34%
420 Total Yards 361
276 Passing Yards 236
144 Rushing Yards 125
2.5 Sacks 2.6
1.0 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

LAC
PASS Justin Herbert275 pass yds, 2.1 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton70 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Ladd McConkey6.1 rec, 82 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Quentin Johnston4.3 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD
BUF
PASS Josh Allen253 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH James Cook61 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC DJ Moore6.3 rec, 83 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Dalton Kincaid3.3 rec, 42 yds, 0.3 TD

Chargers by 6.5

Run it 50 times and Chargers win 66% of them, by 6.5 on average (30-24).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Joe Andreessen (Bills) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 6.5 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Chargers — a 50% win rate yields only 5.9 sacks and 27.6 pressures a game, with Tuli Tuipulotu (3.2 sacks, 8.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Chargers' quarterback should have time; the Bills win just 50% of reps for 4.9 sacks a game, led by Greg Rousseau (2.1 sacks, 8.9 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Look for Ladd McConkey to eat: 6.6 catches and 62 yds a game for the Chargers.
  • DJ Moore is the go-to for the Bills, separating on 42% of routes for 60 yds a game.
  • Donte Jackson (Chargers) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 40% of his coverage snaps, adding 0.4 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Chargers hand it to Omarion Hampton early and often, 11 carries for 70 yds a game at 6.5 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
  • James Cook is the workhorse for the Bills, churning 61 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLAC -6.5
Market lineBUF -2.5
Sim total54
Market total48.5
LAC by 6.5 (66% to win) Projected total 54 pts Justin Herbert ~275 pass yds (250+ 70%) Omarion Hampton ~70 rush yds (70+ 44%) DJ Moore ~83 rec yds, 6.3 rec (70+ 54%)