LAC @ BUF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LAC Chargers
23
PROJECTION
LAC 16 – BUF 24
Week 3 50-sim average Sun 27 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
LAC46%23 16
BUF54%23 24
23
BUF Bills
✓ RESULT BUF by 8 model BUF by 1.0, off by 7.0
✗ VALUE LAC +7 LOSS line at publish BUF -7
✓ TOTAL 40 pts UNDER O/U 50, model 46 lean under

Projected Team Stats

LAC
BUF
46% Win Probability 54%
358 Total Yards 333
235 Passing Yards 218
122 Rushing Yards 115
3.4 Sacks 2.2
1.6 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

LAC
PASS Justin Herbert244 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton67 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Ladd McConkey5.3 rec, 75 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Quentin Johnston3.8 rec, 53 yds, 0.3 TD
BUF
PASS Josh Allen234 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH James Cook51 rush yds
REC DJ Moore5.5 rec, 75 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Dalton Kincaid3.7 rec, 50 yds, 0.4 TD

Bills by 1.0

Run it 50 times and Bills win 54% of them, by 1.0 on average (23-23).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Dorian Williams (Bills) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 4.8 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Deone Walker (Bills) vs Trey Pipkins III (Chargers) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 56% of reps for 0.9 sacks and 2.9 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
In the Trenches
  • The Chargers' quarterback should have time; the Bills win just 51% of reps for 4.8 sacks a game, Greg Rousseau (2.2 sacks, 9.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Chargers — a 50% win rate, 6.5 sacks and 27.9 pressures a game, and Tuli Tuipulotu (3.7 sacks, 8.7 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Bills' aerial attack runs through DJ Moore (65 yds a game, open on 46% of routes).
  • The Chargers' aerial attack runs through Ladd McConkey (54 yds a game, open on 54% of routes).
On the Ground
  • James Cook is the workhorse for the Bills, churning 51 yds a game at 3.7 a carry, churning off the right edge.
  • Omarion Hampton carries the load for the Chargers, 14 carries for 67 yds a game at 4.8 a carry, doing his damage to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim lineBUF -1.0
Market lineBUF -7
Sim total46
Market total50
BUF by 1.0 (54% to win) Projected total 46 pts Justin Herbert ~244 pass yds (250+ 42%) Omarion Hampton ~67 rush yds (70+ 40%) Ladd McConkey ~75 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 60%)