LAC @ DEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 18 slate
LAC Chargers
19
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LAC28%19
DEN72%27
27
DEN Broncos
BET VALUE
Lean DEN -1.5 +6.2 pts
MARKET DEN -1.5 · O/U 41.5

Projected Team Stats

LAC
DEN
28% Win Probability 72%
335 Total Yards 387
212 Passing Yards 263
123 Rushing Yards 124
2.3 Sacks 3.1
2.2 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

LAC
PASS Justin Herbert233 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton62 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ladd McConkey5.3 rec, 59 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Quentin Johnston4.3 rec, 52 yds, 0.3 TD
DEN
PASS Bo Nix268 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins60 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle6.3 rec, 87 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Courtland Sutton4.4 rec, 59 yds, 0.3 TD

Broncos by 7.7

Run it 50 times and Broncos win 72% of them, by 7.7 on average (27-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Quentin Johnston (Chargers) vs Pat Surtain II (Broncos) - winner: Pat Surtain II, holding him to 29 yds on just 39% open, 0.6 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Tony Jefferson (Chargers) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 5.3 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Taurean York (Broncos) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 5.0 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Jaylen Waddle (Broncos) vs Cam Hart (Chargers) - winner: Jaylen Waddle, open on 62% of routes for 7.2/8.7, 63 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Broncos get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (6.6 sacks a game), led by Jonathon Cooper (1.9 sacks, 9.1 pressures a game).
  • The Broncos' line should hold up: the Chargers win just 50% of their reps, mustering 4.6 sacks and 21.0 pressures a game — Tuli Tuipulotu (3.0 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Broncos' aerial attack runs through Jaylen Waddle (63 yds a game, open on 62% of routes).
  • Ladd McConkey is the engine of the Chargers' passing game — 43 yds a game on 49% separation.
  • Derwin James Jr. (Chargers) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 32% of his coverage snaps — and 0.0 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • J.K. Dobbins carries the load for the Broncos, 11 carries for 60 yds a game at 5.3 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
  • The Chargers lean on Omarion Hampton, 12 carries for 62 yds a game at 5.0 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDEN -7.7
Market lineDEN -1.5
Sim total46
Market total41.5
DEN by 7.7 (72% to win) Projected total 46 pts Bo Nix ~268 pass yds (250+ 74%) Omarion Hampton ~62 rush yds (70+ 32%) Jaylen Waddle ~87 rec yds, 6.3 rec (70+ 66%)