LAC @ LA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 8 slate
LAC Chargers
17
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LAC18%17
LA82%34
34
LA Rams
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take LA -3.5 +12.8 pts
MARKET LA -3.5 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

LAC
LA
18% Win Probability 82%
292 Total Yards 452
200 Passing Yards 312
92 Rushing Yards 140
2.1 Sacks 3.8
1.6 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

LAC
PASS Justin Herbert226 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton44 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Ladd McConkey5.7 rec, 66 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Quentin Johnston3.9 rec, 50 yds, 0.3 TD
LA
PASS Matthew Stafford291 pass yds, 2.3 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams75 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Puka Nacua7.0 rec, 90 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Davante Adams5.4 rec, 83 yds, 0.7 TD

Rams by 16.3

The sim sides with Rams: a 16.3-point edge and a 82% win rate over 50 runs (34-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Derwin James Jr. (Chargers) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.6 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Donte Jackson (Chargers) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 64% of routes for 10.2/11.6, 84 yds a game - separation all day.
  • Davante Adams (Rams) vs Cam Hart (Chargers) - winner: Davante Adams, open on 61% of routes for 6.5/8.1, 65 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Rams may have to manufacture pressure, winning 52% up front for 7.5 sacks a game — Myles Garrett (3.9 sacks, 10.4 pressures a game) out front.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Chargers — a 50% win rate yields only 4.6 sacks and 17.5 pressures a game, Tuli Tuipulotu (3.5 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Puka Nacua headlines the Rams' receiving corps — 10.2 catches for 84 yds a game on 64% separation.
  • The Chargers' aerial attack runs through Ladd McConkey (46 yds a game, open on 51% of routes).
  • Kamren Kinchens (Rams) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 36% of routes — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Rams lean on Kyren Williams, 16 carries for 75 yds a game at 4.6 a carry, with his best work off right tackle.
  • Omarion Hampton is the workhorse for the Chargers, churning 44 yds a game at 3.8 a carry.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -16.3
Market lineLA -3.5
Sim total51
Market total48.5
LA by 16.3 (82% to win) Projected total 51 pts Matthew Stafford ~291 pass yds (250+ 66%) Kyren Williams ~75 rush yds (70+ 60%) Puka Nacua ~90 rec yds, 7.0 rec (70+ 68%)