LAC @ LV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
LAC Chargers
18
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
LAC48%18
LV52%19
19
LV Raiders

Projected Team Stats

LAC
LV
48% Win Probability 52%
320 Total Yards 306
208 Passing Yards 244
112 Rushing Yards 62
1.8 Sacks 3.5
1.6 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

LAC
PASS Justin Herbert228 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton47 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Ladd McConkey4.6 rec, 61 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tre Harris4.1 rec, 59 yds, 0.4 TD
LV
PASS Kirk Cousins253 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty36 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tre Tucker5.4 rec, 73 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.2 rec, 51 yds, 0.5 TD

Raiders by 0.5

The model leans Raiders by 0.5, winning 52% of 50 sims (projected 19-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Tony Jefferson (Chargers) - winner: Tony Jefferson, holding him to 2.5 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
In the Trenches
  • The Raiders may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 6.7 sacks a game — Maxx Crosby (4.0 sacks, 8.8 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Raiders' quarterback should have time; the Chargers win just 51% of reps for 3.6 sacks a game, with Tuli Tuipulotu (2.9 sacks, 5.2 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Raiders to feed Tre Tucker: 6.3 catches for 52 yds a game, open 45% of the time.
  • The Chargers will live and die with Ladd McConkey, who comes open 61% of the time (41 yds a game).
  • Few balls get past Tarheeb Still (Chargers), who yields separation on 35% of routes, good for 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Ashton Jeanty: 36 yds a game at 2.5 a carry for the Raiders.
  • The Chargers lean on Omarion Hampton, 13 carries for 47 yds a game at 3.7 a carry, churning to the right side.

Model vs Market

LV by 0.5 (52% to win) Projected total 37 pts Kirk Cousins ~253 pass yds (250+ 54%) Omarion Hampton ~47 rush yds (70+ 14%) Tre Tucker ~73 rec yds, 5.4 rec (70+ 54%)