LAC @ LV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
LAC Chargers
24
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LAC56%24
LV44%21
21
LV Raiders
BET VALUE
MARKET LAC -5.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

LAC
LV
56% Win Probability 44%
341 Total Yards 341
211 Passing Yards 267
130 Rushing Yards 74
1.4 Sacks 2.4
1.2 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

LAC
PASS Justin Herbert218 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton61 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ladd McConkey5.2 rec, 64 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Quentin Johnston3.7 rec, 48 yds, 0.4 TD
LV
PASS Kirk Cousins269 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty46 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Tre Tucker6.3 rec, 78 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.7 rec, 56 yds, 0.5 TD

Chargers by 2.9

Run it 50 times and Chargers win 56% of them, by 2.9 on average (24-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 5.9 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Derwin James Jr. (Chargers) - winner: Derwin James Jr., holding him to 3.3 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Chargers — a 50% win rate, 2.8 sacks and 7.3 pressures a game (Tuli Tuipulotu (2.5 sacks, 3.7 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Raiders — a 49% win rate, 5.1 sacks and 25.2 pressures a game, and Maxx Crosby (3.2 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Ladd McConkey's show for the Chargers: 48 yds a game, open on 57% of routes.
  • Look for Tre Tucker to eat: 6.9 catches and 53 yds a game for the Raiders.
  • Few balls get past Eric Stokes (Raiders), who yields separation on 37% of routes — and 0.3 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Chargers lean on Omarion Hampton, 10 carries for 61 yds a game at 5.9 a carry, finding room to the right side.
  • Ashton Jeanty is the workhorse for the Raiders, churning 46 yds a game at 3.3 a carry, finding room off the right edge against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLAC -2.9
Market lineLAC -5.5
Sim total45
Market total43.5
LAC by 2.9 (56% to win) Projected total 45 pts Kirk Cousins ~269 pass yds (250+ 64%) Omarion Hampton ~61 rush yds (70+ 30%) Tre Tucker ~78 rec yds, 6.3 rec (70+ 50%)