LAC @ MIA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 16 slate
LAC Chargers
24
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LAC58%24
MIA42%22
22
MIA Dolphins
BET VALUE
MARKET LAC -7 · O/U 44.5

Projected Team Stats

LAC
MIA
58% Win Probability 42%
348 Total Yards 332
233 Passing Yards 218
116 Rushing Yards 115
2.8 Sacks 2.6
1.2 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

LAC
PASS Justin Herbert245 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton57 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Ladd McConkey5.3 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Quentin Johnston3.7 rec, 53 yds, 0.3 TD
MIA
PASS Malik Willis235 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane77 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Malik Washington4.5 rec, 51 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jalen Tolbert3.1 rec, 40 yds, 0.2 TD

Chargers by 2.0

The model leans Chargers by 2.0, winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 24-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Derwin James Jr. (Chargers) - winner: De'Von Achane, 5.5 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Willie Gay (Dolphins) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 5.5 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Donte Jackson (Chargers) - winner: Donte Jackson, holding him to 36 yds on just 38% open, 0.5 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Jamaree Caldwell (Chargers) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Jamaree Caldwell, winning 59% of reps for 0.3 sacks and 6.7 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
In the Trenches
  • The Chargers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (5.6 sacks a game), with Tuli Tuipulotu (3.1 sacks, 8.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Chargers' line should hold up: the Dolphins win just 50% of their reps, mustering 4.9 sacks and 23.5 pressures a game, and Joshua Uche (2.1 sacks, 5.2 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Ladd McConkey's show for the Chargers: 54 yds a game, open on 49% of routes.
  • The Dolphins lean on Malik Washington, good for 4.6 catches and 36 yds a game while breaking open on 38% of his routes.
  • Derwin James Jr. (Chargers) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 34% of routes, good for 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Chargers' run game leans on Omarion Hampton — 10 carries, 57 yds a game (5.5 a carry), doing his damage to the right side and moving the chains.
  • On the ground, the Dolphins ride De'Von Achane: 14 carries, 77 yds a game (5.5 a carry), with his best work off the right edge and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLAC -2.0
Market lineLAC -7
Sim total47
Market total44.5
LAC by 2.0 (58% to win) Projected total 47 pts Justin Herbert ~245 pass yds (250+ 50%) De'Von Achane ~77 rush yds (70+ 52%) Ladd McConkey ~70 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 40%)