LAC @ SEA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LAC Chargers
19
PROJECTION
Week 4 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LAC24%19
SEA76%25
25
SEA Seahawks
BET VALUE
MARKET SEA -3 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

LAC
SEA
24% Win Probability 76%
331 Total Yards 359
218 Passing Yards 244
112 Rushing Yards 115
1.5 Sacks 3.4
1.6 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

LAC
PASS Justin Herbert240 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton53 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ladd McConkey5.1 rec, 62 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Quentin Johnston4.2 rec, 53 yds, 0.1 TD
SEA
PASS Sam Darnold242 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet65 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba5.4 rec, 70 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Cooper Kupp4.7 rec, 56 yds, 0.3 TD

Seahawks by 6.2

Across 50 simulations, Seahawks come out on top 76% of the time by an average of 6.2 (25-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Ty Okada (Seahawks) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 4.7 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Donte Jackson (Chargers) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 64% of routes for 7.9/8.9, 67 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Seahawks — a 49% win rate yields only 6.1 sacks and 31.4 pressures a game, Uchenna Nwosu (1.4 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Seahawks' line should hold up: the Chargers win just 51% of their reps, mustering 3.2 sacks and 12.7 pressures a game, and Tuli Tuipulotu (2.5 sacks, 5.0 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Seahawks lean on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, good for 7.9 catches and 67 yds a game while breaking open on 64% of his routes.
  • The Chargers lean on Ladd McConkey, good for 6.4 catches and 46 yds a game while breaking open on 53% of his routes.
  • Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 30% of routes, good for 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Seahawks ride Zach Charbonnet: 16 carries, 65 yds a game (4.1 a carry), churning to the right side.
  • The Chargers hand it to Omarion Hampton early and often, 11 carries for 53 yds a game at 4.7 a carry, with his best work off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSEA -6.2
Market lineSEA -3
Sim total44
Market total45.5
SEA by 6.2 (76% to win) Projected total 44 pts Sam Darnold ~242 pass yds (250+ 46%) Zach Charbonnet ~65 rush yds (70+ 42%) Jaxon Smith-Njigba ~70 rec yds, 5.4 rec (70+ 38%)