LAC @ SEA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 4 slate
LAC Chargers
17
PROJECTION
LAC 23 – SEA 30
Week 4 50-sim average Sun 4 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
LAC40%17 23
SEA60%21 30
21
SEA Seahawks
✓ RESULT SEA by 7 model SEA by 4.5, off by 2.5
• SPREAD LAC +7 PUSH line at publish SEA -7
✗ TOTAL 53 pts OVER O/U 43, model 38 lean under

Projected Team Stats

LAC
SEA
40% Win Probability 60%
302 Total Yards 295
206 Passing Yards 222
96 Rushing Yards 73
2.1 Sacks 2.4
2.1 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

LAC
PASS Justin Herbert220 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton46 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ladd McConkey5.6 rec, 69 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Quentin Johnston3.7 rec, 45 yds, 0.1 TD
SEA
PASS Sam Darnold223 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Jadarian Price45 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba6.2 rec, 89 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Cooper Kupp3.6 rec, 46 yds, 0.2 TD

Seahawks by 4.5

The sim sides with Seahawks: a 4.5-point edge and a 60% win rate over 50 runs (21-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Tuli Tuipulotu (Chargers) vs Abraham Lucas (Seahawks) - winner: Tuli Tuipulotu, winning 56% of reps for 2.8 sacks and 6.7 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Tarheeb Still (Chargers) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 62% of routes for 9.1/11.0, 81 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Seahawks — a 50% win rate yields only 5.2 sacks and 31.7 pressures a game, DeMarcus Lawrence (1.6 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Seahawks' line should hold up: the Chargers win just 50% of their reps, mustering 4.7 sacks and 19.5 pressures a game, and Tuli Tuipulotu (2.8 sacks, 6.7 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Seahawks lean on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, good for 9.1 catches and 81 yds a game while breaking open on 62% of his routes.
  • The Chargers lean on Ladd McConkey, good for 6.7 catches and 47 yds a game while breaking open on 52% of his routes.
  • Julian Love (Seahawks) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 28% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Jadarian Price: 45 yds a game at 3.3 a carry for the Seahawks.
  • On the ground, the Chargers ride Omarion Hampton: 14 carries, 46 yds a game (3.3 a carry).

Model vs Market

Sim lineSEA -4.5
Market lineSEA -7
Sim total38
Market total43
SEA by 4.5 (60% to win) Projected total 38 pts Sam Darnold ~223 pass yds (250+ 32%) Omarion Hampton ~46 rush yds (70+ 8%) Jaxon Smith-Njigba ~89 rec yds, 6.2 rec (70+ 68%)