LAC @ TB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
LAC Chargers
17
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
LAC44%17
TB56%18
18
TB Buccaneers

Projected Team Stats

LAC
TB
44% Win Probability 56%
289 Total Yards 280
194 Passing Yards 203
95 Rushing Yards 77
3.0 Sacks 3.6
1.4 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

LAC
PASS Justin Herbert212 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton37 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ladd McConkey5.3 rec, 68 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Quentin Johnston3.8 rec, 56 yds, 0.2 TD
TB
PASS Baker Mayfield219 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving41 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka4.5 rec, 58 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Chris Godwin4.6 rec, 49 yds, 0.1 TD

Buccaneers by 0.8

Buccaneers are the pick here, favoured by 0.8 and winning 56% of 50 sims (projected 18-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Antoine Winfield Jr., holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Calijah Kancey (Buccaneers) vs Cole Strange (Chargers) - winner: Calijah Kancey, winning 55% of reps for 0.3 sacks and 5.4 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Buccaneers — a 52% win rate yields only 6.5 sacks and 33.1 pressures a game, led by Yaya Diaby (2.6 sacks, 8.9 pressures a game).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Chargers — a 49% win rate, 5.4 sacks and 27.4 pressures a game (Tuli Tuipulotu (2.7 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Buccaneers lean on Emeka Egbuka, good for 4.7 catches and 36 yds a game while breaking open on 45% of his routes.
  • The Chargers will live and die with Ladd McConkey, who comes open 50% of the time (36 yds a game).
  • Tarheeb Still (Chargers) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 35% of his coverage snaps, adding 0.8 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Buccaneers lean on Bucky Irving, 12 carries for 41 yds a game at 3.3 a carry.
  • The Chargers' run game leans on Omarion Hampton — 12 carries, 37 yds a game (3.1 a carry), finding room off the right edge into a stout front.

Model vs Market

TB by 0.8 (56% to win) Projected total 34 pts Baker Mayfield ~219 pass yds (250+ 22%) Ladd McConkey ~68 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 46%)