LAC @ TB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
LAC Chargers
26
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LAC76%26
TB24%17
17
TB Buccaneers
BET VALUE
Lean LAC -1.5 +7.8 pts
MARKET LAC -1.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

LAC
TB
76% Win Probability 24%
370 Total Yards 298
241 Passing Yards 213
129 Rushing Yards 85
1.9 Sacks 2.6
1.0 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

LAC
PASS Justin Herbert242 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton65 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Ladd McConkey5.9 rec, 77 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Quentin Johnston4.1 rec, 56 yds, 0.3 TD
TB
PASS Baker Mayfield225 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving35 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Chris Godwin5.1 rec, 57 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka3.5 rec, 47 yds, 0.2 TD

Chargers by 9.3

The model leans Chargers by 9.3, winning 76% of 50 sims (projected 26-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 5.3 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Elijah Molden (Chargers) - winner: Elijah Molden, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - running into a wall.
In the Trenches
  • The Buccaneers' quarterback should have time; the Chargers win just 49% of reps for 4.5 sacks a game, led by Tuli Tuipulotu (2.6 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Buccaneers — a 49% win rate, 5.2 sacks and 29.6 pressures a game (Elijah Roberts (1.3 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Chargers will live and die with Ladd McConkey, who comes open 44% of the time (52 yds a game).
  • Expect the Buccaneers to feed Chris Godwin: 5.9 catches for 44 yds a game, open 49% of the time.
  • Derwin James Jr. (Chargers) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 32% of his coverage snaps, adding 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Omarion Hampton carries the load for the Chargers, 12 carries for 65 yds a game at 5.3 a carry, finding room off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Bucky Irving is the workhorse for the Buccaneers, churning 35 yds a game at 2.7 a carry against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLAC -9.3
Market lineLAC -1.5
Sim total43
Market total46.5
LAC by 9.3 (76% to win) Projected total 43 pts Justin Herbert ~242 pass yds (250+ 44%) Omarion Hampton ~65 rush yds (70+ 32%) Ladd McConkey ~77 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 44%)