LV @ ARZ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 17 slate
LV Raiders
25
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LV64%25
ARZ36%23
23
ARZ Cardinals
BET VALUE
MARKET LV -1.5 · O/U 42.5

Projected Team Stats

LV
ARZ
64% Win Probability 36%
388 Total Yards 331
290 Passing Yards 230
98 Rushing Yards 101
3.7 Sacks 1.5
1.2 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

LV
PASS Kirk Cousins291 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty61 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Tre Tucker6.6 rec, 86 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jalen Nailor4.3 rec, 59 yds, 0.4 TD
ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett254 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love61 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Michael Wilson4.8 rec, 67 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.5.1 rec, 66 yds, 0.5 TD

Raiders by 2.5

Run it 50 times and Raiders win 64% of them, by 2.5 on average (25-23).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 8.8 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
In the Trenches
  • The Raiders may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 6.7 sacks a game (Maxx Crosby (4.3 sacks, 9.2 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Cardinals — a 50% win rate yields only 3.2 sacks and 7.5 pressures a game, with Josh Sweat (2.9 sacks, 3.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Raiders to feed Tre Tucker: 6.4 catches for 56 yds a game, open 45% of the time.
  • Through the air it is Marvin Harrison Jr.'s show for the Cardinals: 47 yds a game, open on 43% of routes.
  • In coverage, Eric Stokes (Raiders) travels and erases — only 38% separation allowed, adding 0.5 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Raiders hand it to Ashton Jeanty early and often, 15 carries for 61 yds a game at 4.1 a carry, churning to the right side.
  • On the ground, the Cardinals ride Jeremiyah Love: 7 carries, 61 yds a game (8.8 a carry), churning off the right edge and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLV -2.5
Market lineLV -1.5
Sim total48
Market total42.5
LV by 2.5 (64% to win) Projected total 48 pts Kirk Cousins ~291 pass yds (250+ 76%) Jeremiyah Love ~61 rush yds (70+ 36%) Tre Tucker ~86 rec yds, 6.6 rec (70+ 66%)