LV @ CLV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 12 slate
LV Raiders
19
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LV56%19
CLV44%16
16
CLV Browns
BET VALUE
MARKET CLV -2.5 · O/U 39.5

Projected Team Stats

LV
CLV
56% Win Probability 44%
300 Total Yards 269
226 Passing Yards 169
74 Rushing Yards 100
2.7 Sacks 1.3
1.2 Turnovers 0.7

Projected Leaders

LV
PASS Kirk Cousins225 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty41 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tre Tucker5.2 rec, 66 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.0 rec, 51 yds, 0.5 TD
CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson187 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins62 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Denzel Boston3.8 rec, 50 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jerry Jeudy3.6 rec, 47 yds, 0.2 TD

Raiders by 2.2

The sim sides with Raiders: a 2.2-point edge and a 56% win rate over 50 runs (19-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Eric Stokes (Raiders) - winner: Eric Stokes, holding him to 23 yds on just 34% open, 0.6 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
  • Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Carson Schwesinger (Browns) - winner: Carson Schwesinger, holding him to 3.3 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Maliek Collins (Browns) vs Tyler Linderbaum (Raiders) - winner: Maliek Collins, winning 56% of reps for 2.1 sacks and 0.0 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • The Browns' line should hold up: the Raiders win just 49% of their reps, mustering 4.7 sacks and 21.8 pressures a game — Maxx Crosby (2.8 sacks, 6.7 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Raiders' quarterback should have time; the Browns win just 52% of reps for 2.9 sacks a game, with Maliek Collins (2.1 sacks, 0.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Raiders to feed Tre Tucker: 5.6 catches for 47 yds a game, open 49% of the time.
  • The Browns will live and die with Jerry Jeudy, who comes open 34% of the time (23 yds a game).
  • Receivers won't find much room against Eric Stokes (Raiders): 33% separation allowed, good for 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Ashton Jeanty is the workhorse for the Raiders, churning 41 yds a game at 3.3 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle against a stingy front.
  • On the ground, the Browns ride Quinshon Judkins: 14 carries, 62 yds a game (4.6 a carry), with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLV -2.2
Market lineCLV -2.5
Sim total35
Market total39.5
LV by 2.2 (56% to win) Projected total 35 pts Kirk Cousins ~225 pass yds (250+ 26%) Quinshon Judkins ~62 rush yds (70+ 28%) Tre Tucker ~66 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 42%)