LV @ CLV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 12 slate
LV Raiders
19
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
LV60%19
CLV40%17
17
CLV Browns

Projected Team Stats

LV
CLV
60% Win Probability 40%
302 Total Yards 305
227 Passing Yards 218
75 Rushing Yards 87
3.1 Sacks 1.5
1.2 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

LV
PASS Kirk Cousins236 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty38 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tre Tucker5.2 rec, 64 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jalen Nailor3.9 rec, 49 yds, 0.3 TD
CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson241 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins41 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Denzel Boston6.0 rec, 92 yds, 0.5 TD
REC KC Concepcion3.8 rec, 44 yds, 0.1 TD

Raiders by 1.9

The sim sides with Raiders: a 1.9-point edge and a 60% win rate over 50 runs (19-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Maxx Crosby (Raiders) vs Spencer Fano (Browns) - winner: Maxx Crosby, winning 56% of reps for 3.7 sacks and 9.2 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Myles Harden (Browns) - winner: Myles Harden, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Denzel Boston (Browns) vs Taron Johnson (Raiders) - winner: Denzel Boston, open on 61% of routes for 6.9/9.3, 76 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Browns' line should hold up: the Raiders win just 49% of their reps, mustering 5.5 sacks and 24.9 pressures a game — Maxx Crosby (3.7 sacks, 9.2 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Raiders' quarterback should have time; the Browns win just 51% of reps for 3.3 sacks a game, with Jared Verse (0.8 sacks, 4.9 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Raiders to feed Tre Tucker: 5.2 catches for 41 yds a game, open 41% of the time.
  • The Browns will live and die with Denzel Boston, who comes open 61% of the time (76 yds a game).
  • Receivers won't find much room against Denzel Ward (Browns): 37% separation allowed, good for 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Ashton Jeanty is the workhorse for the Raiders, churning 38 yds a game at 2.7 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle against a stingy front.
  • On the ground, the Browns ride Quinshon Judkins: 12 carries, 41 yds a game (3.5 a carry), with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

LV by 1.9 (60% to win) Projected total 37 pts Deshaun Watson ~241 pass yds (250+ 52%) Denzel Boston ~92 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 68%)