LV @ DEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 11 slate
LV Raiders
20
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
LV46%20
DEN54%22
22
DEN Broncos

Projected Team Stats

LV
DEN
46% Win Probability 54%
317 Total Yards 360
240 Passing Yards 250
77 Rushing Yards 110
2.4 Sacks 1.6
1.1 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

LV
PASS Kirk Cousins243 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty39 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tre Tucker5.4 rec, 66 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.9 rec, 58 yds, 0.3 TD
DEN
PASS Bo Nix254 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins52 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle7.1 rec, 98 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Courtland Sutton3.9 rec, 53 yds, 0.2 TD

Broncos by 2.8

Run it 50 times and Broncos win 54% of them, by 2.8 on average (22-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Red Murdock (Broncos) - winner: Red Murdock, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
  • Jaylen Waddle (Broncos) vs Taron Johnson (Raiders) - winner: Jaylen Waddle, open on 60% of routes for 8.6/12.3, 73 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • The Broncos may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 3.4 sacks a game — Nik Bonitto (1.8 sacks, 3.8 pressures a game) out front.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Raiders — a 49% win rate, 5.3 sacks and 23.7 pressures a game (Maxx Crosby (3.4 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Jaylen Waddle should find soft spots all day, open 60% of the time for 73 yds a game.
  • Expect the Raiders to feed Tre Tucker: 5.4 catches for 43 yds a game, open 43% of the time.
  • In coverage, Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) travels and erases — only 39% separation allowed, adding 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • J.K. Dobbins carries the load for the Broncos, 12 carries for 52 yds a game at 4.3 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side.
  • Ashton Jeanty carries the load for the Raiders, 13 carries for 39 yds a game at 3.0 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

DEN by 2.8 (54% to win) Projected total 42 pts Bo Nix ~254 pass yds (250+ 60%) J.K. Dobbins ~52 rush yds (70+ 20%) Jaylen Waddle ~98 rec yds, 7.1 rec (70+ 72%)