LV @ DEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 11 slate
LV Raiders
14
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LV6%14
DEN94%30
30
DEN Broncos
BET VALUE
Lean DEN -8.5 +7.5 pts
MARKET DEN -8.5 · O/U 41.5

Projected Team Stats

LV
DEN
6% Win Probability 94%
290 Total Yards 404
217 Passing Yards 256
73 Rushing Yards 147
2.1 Sacks 1.8
1.6 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

LV
PASS Kirk Cousins231 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty41 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tre Tucker6.4 rec, 69 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.5 rec, 46 yds, 0.2 TD
DEN
PASS Bo Nix242 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins65 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle5.9 rec, 83 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Courtland Sutton4.8 rec, 65 yds, 0.4 TD

Broncos by 16.0

The sim sides with Broncos: a 16.0-point edge and a 94% win rate over 50 runs (30-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) - winner: Ja'Quan McMillian, holding him to 34 yds on just 34% open, 1.5 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 6.2 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Riley Moss (Broncos) - winner: Riley Moss, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
  • Jaylen Waddle (Broncos) vs Taron Johnson (Raiders) - winner: Jaylen Waddle, open on 60% of routes for 6.6/7.9, 62 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Broncos — a 52% win rate, 3.7 sacks and 8.3 pressures a game — Nik Bonitto (1.9 sacks, 2.8 pressures a game) out front.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Raiders — a 49% win rate, 4.7 sacks and 21.4 pressures a game — Maxx Crosby (3.4 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Jaylen Waddle is the engine of the Broncos' passing game — 62 yds a game on 60% separation.
  • Expect the Raiders to feed Tre Tucker: 5.2 catches for 34 yds a game, open 34% of the time.
  • In coverage, Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) travels and erases — only 32% separation allowed, good for 1.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Broncos ride J.K. Dobbins: 10 carries, 65 yds a game (6.2 a carry), with his best work off right tackle and controlling the clock.
  • Expect a steady diet of Ashton Jeanty: 41 yds a game at 3.1 a carry for the Raiders, with the holes opening off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDEN -16.0
Market lineDEN -8.5
Sim total43
Market total41.5
DEN by 16.0 (94% to win) Projected total 43 pts Bo Nix ~242 pass yds (250+ 52%) J.K. Dobbins ~65 rush yds (70+ 36%) Jaylen Waddle ~83 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 64%)