LV @ KC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 18 slate
LV Raiders
16
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LV32%16
KC68%24
24
KC Chiefs
BET VALUE
MARKET KC -8.5 · O/U 40.5

Projected Team Stats

LV
KC
32% Win Probability 68%
298 Total Yards 353
219 Passing Yards 208
79 Rushing Yards 145
3.1 Sacks 1.4
1.4 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

LV
PASS Kirk Cousins224 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty43 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tre Tucker5.7 rec, 66 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.3 rec, 47 yds, 0.4 TD
KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes219 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III81 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Rashee Rice5.5 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Xavier Worthy3.3 rec, 45 yds, 0.3 TD

Chiefs by 8.6

Across 50 simulations, Chiefs come out on top 68% of the time by an average of 8.6 (24-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 6.4 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs Mansoor Delane (Chiefs) - winner: Mansoor Delane, holding him to 42 yds on just 39% open, 0.8 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
  • Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Drue Tranquill, holding him to 3.3 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Chris Jones (Chiefs) vs Spencer Burford (Raiders) - winner: Chris Jones, winning 58% of reps for 2.3 sacks and 0.5 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
In the Trenches
  • The Raiders' line should hold up: the Chiefs win just 52% of their reps, mustering 3.1 sacks and 7.7 pressures a game (Chris Jones (2.3 sacks, 0.5 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Raiders may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.8 sacks a game — Maxx Crosby (3.5 sacks, 10.4 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Rashee Rice should find soft spots all day, open 51% of the time for 53 yds a game.
  • Tre Tucker is the go-to for the Raiders, separating on 39% of routes for 42 yds a game.
  • Mansoor Delane (Chiefs) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 37% of his coverage snaps, adding 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Kenneth Walker III: 81 yds a game at 6.4 a carry for the Chiefs, with his best work off the right edge.
  • On the ground, the Raiders ride Ashton Jeanty: 13 carries, 43 yds a game (3.3 a carry), with his best work off right tackle against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineKC -8.6
Market lineKC -8.5
Sim total40
Market total40.5
KC by 8.6 (68% to win) Projected total 40 pts Kirk Cousins ~224 pass yds (250+ 34%) Kenneth Walker III ~81 rush yds (70+ 48%) Rashee Rice ~67 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 46%)