LV @ LAC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LV Raiders
17
PROJECTION
LV 26 – LAC 14
Week 2 50-sim average Sun 20 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
LV20%17 26
LAC80%25 14
25
LAC Chargers
✗ RESULT LV by 12 model LAC by 8.0, off by 20.0
✗ SPREAD LAC -7 LOSS line at publish LAC -7
• TOTAL 40 pts UNDER O/U 43.5, model 43

Projected Team Stats

LV
LAC
20% Win Probability 80%
312 Total Yards 370
240 Passing Yards 239
72 Rushing Yards 131
2.5 Sacks 1.1
1.7 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

LV
PASS Kirk Cousins247 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty43 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tre Tucker6.4 rec, 75 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.7 rec, 54 yds, 0.3 TD
LAC
PASS Justin Herbert248 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton63 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Ladd McConkey6.0 rec, 79 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Quentin Johnston4.3 rec, 66 yds, 0.4 TD

Chargers by 8.0

The sim sides with Chargers: a 8.0-point edge and a 80% win rate over 50 runs (25-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 5.6 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Tuli Tuipulotu (Chargers) vs DJ Glaze (Raiders) - winner: Tuli Tuipulotu, winning 55% of reps for 2.2 sacks and 3.8 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Ladd McConkey (Chargers) vs Darien Porter (Raiders) - winner: Ladd McConkey, open on 61% of routes for 7.1/9.5, 67 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Raiders' quarterback should have time; the Chargers win just 50% of reps for 2.7 sacks a game, Tuli Tuipulotu (2.2 sacks, 3.8 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Chargers' quarterback should have time; the Raiders win just 51% of reps for 4.4 sacks a game, Maxx Crosby (2.6 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Ladd McConkey headlines the Chargers' receiving corps — 7.1 catches for 67 yds a game on 61% separation.
  • The Raiders will live and die with Tre Tucker, who comes open 44% of the time (55 yds a game).
  • Tarheeb Still (Chargers) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 40% of routes, adding 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Chargers hand it to Omarion Hampton early and often, 11 carries for 63 yds a game at 5.6 a carry, with his best work off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Ashton Jeanty is the workhorse for the Raiders, churning 43 yds a game at 3.4 a carry, with his best work to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLAC -8.0
Market lineLAC -7
Sim total43
Market total43.5
LAC by 8.0 (80% to win) Projected total 43 pts Justin Herbert ~248 pass yds (250+ 50%) Omarion Hampton ~63 rush yds (70+ 36%) Ladd McConkey ~79 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 50%)