LV @ LAC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LV Raiders
17
PROJECTION
Week 2 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LV26%17
LAC74%25
25
LAC Chargers
BET VALUE
MARKET LAC -8.5 · O/U 42.5

Projected Team Stats

LV
LAC
26% Win Probability 74%
317 Total Yards 366
249 Passing Yards 237
68 Rushing Yards 129
2.5 Sacks 1.2
1.5 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

LV
PASS Kirk Cousins256 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty43 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tre Tucker6.1 rec, 71 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Brock Bowers5.0 rec, 56 yds, 0.4 TD
LAC
PASS Justin Herbert241 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton66 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Ladd McConkey5.6 rec, 72 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Quentin Johnston3.9 rec, 53 yds, 0.3 TD

Chargers by 7.5

Across 50 simulations, Chargers come out on top 74% of the time by an average of 7.5 (25-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 5.8 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Derwin James Jr. (Chargers) - winner: Derwin James Jr., holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
  • Ladd McConkey (Chargers) vs Darien Porter (Raiders) - winner: Ladd McConkey, open on 59% of routes for 7.1/9.4, 61 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
  • The Raiders' quarterback should have time; the Chargers win just 51% of reps for 2.8 sacks a game, Tuli Tuipulotu (2.4 sacks, 3.5 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Chargers' quarterback should have time; the Raiders win just 50% of reps for 4.6 sacks a game, Maxx Crosby (2.6 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Ladd McConkey headlines the Chargers' receiving corps — 7.1 catches for 61 yds a game on 59% separation.
  • The Raiders will live and die with Tre Tucker, who comes open 44% of the time (43 yds a game).
  • Eric Stokes (Raiders) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 40% of routes, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Chargers hand it to Omarion Hampton early and often, 11 carries for 66 yds a game at 5.8 a carry, with his best work off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • The Raiders hand it to Ashton Jeanty early and often, 13 carries for 43 yds a game at 3.2 a carry, with his best work to the right side with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLAC -7.5
Market lineLAC -8.5
Sim total42
Market total42.5
LAC by 7.5 (74% to win) Projected total 42 pts Kirk Cousins ~256 pass yds (250+ 52%) Omarion Hampton ~66 rush yds (70+ 38%) Ladd McConkey ~72 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 46%)