LV @ NE Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LV Raiders
19
PROJECTION
Week 5 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LV26%19
NE74%26
26
NE Patriots
BET VALUE
MARKET NE -8.5 · O/U 44.5

Projected Team Stats

LV
NE
26% Win Probability 74%
316 Total Yards 379
220 Passing Yards 242
96 Rushing Yards 137
3.3 Sacks 1.9
1.2 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

LV
PASS Kirk Cousins228 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty57 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tre Tucker5.7 rec, 60 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Brock Bowers5.1 rec, 49 yds, 0.6 TD
NE
PASS Drake Maye257 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson66 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC A.J. Brown6.0 rec, 87 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Kayshon Boutte2.6 rec, 42 yds, 0.3 TD

Patriots by 7.3

Across 50 simulations, Patriots come out on top 74% of the time by an average of 7.3 (26-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 32 yds on just 33% open, 1.5 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 5.5 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Jalen Nailor (Raiders) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 24 yds on just 38% open, 0.5 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Jackson Powers-Johnson (Raiders) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 57% of reps for 2.7 sacks and 0.2 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
In the Trenches
  • The Patriots may have to manufacture pressure, winning 52% up front for 3.8 sacks a game, and Cory Durden (2.7 sacks, 0.2 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Raiders may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 6.1 sacks a game — Maxx Crosby (4.0 sacks, 9.5 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • A.J. Brown should find soft spots all day, open 51% of the time for 72 yds a game.
  • Expect the Raiders to feed Brock Bowers: 5.2 catches for 37 yds a game, open 59% of the time.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Christian Gonzalez (Patriots): 30% separation allowed, adding 1.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Rhamondre Stevenson is the workhorse for the Patriots, churning 66 yds a game at 5.5 a carry, finding room off right tackle and controlling the clock.
  • Ashton Jeanty carries the load for the Raiders, 15 carries for 57 yds a game at 3.9 a carry, with his best work to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNE -7.3
Market lineNE -8.5
Sim total45
Market total44.5
NE by 7.3 (74% to win) Projected total 45 pts Drake Maye ~257 pass yds (250+ 50%) Rhamondre Stevenson ~66 rush yds (70+ 38%) A.J. Brown ~87 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 62%)