LV @ NO Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LV Raiders
20
PROJECTION
Week 3 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LV44%20
NO56%22
22
NO Saints
BET VALUE
MARKET NO -3 · O/U 42.5

Projected Team Stats

LV
NO
44% Win Probability 56%
347 Total Yards 343
260 Passing Yards 260
87 Rushing Yards 83
1.9 Sacks 1.4
1.1 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

LV
PASS Kirk Cousins269 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty59 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tre Tucker6.1 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.8 rec, 54 yds, 0.6 TD
NO
PASS Tyler Shough269 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr.49 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Chris Olave6.7 rec, 93 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jordyn Tyson4.6 rec, 59 yds, 0.4 TD

Saints by 2.1

Run it 50 times and Saints win 56% of them, by 2.1 on average (22-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Chase Young (Saints) vs DJ Glaze (Raiders) - winner: Chase Young, winning 56% of reps for 3.1 sacks and 4.8 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • Travis Etienne Jr. (Saints) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Travis Etienne Jr., 4.7 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
In the Trenches
  • The Saints may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 3.4 sacks a game — Chase Young (3.1 sacks, 4.8 pressures a game) out front.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Raiders — a 49% win rate, 3.3 sacks and 12.8 pressures a game — Maxx Crosby (2.8 sacks, 6.3 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Chris Olave is the engine of the Saints' passing game — 74 yds a game on 49% separation.
  • Through the air it is Tre Tucker's show for the Raiders: 49 yds a game, open on 41% of routes.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Kool-Aid McKinstry (Saints): 37% separation allowed, adding 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Travis Etienne Jr.: 49 yds a game at 4.7 a carry for the Saints, with the holes opening off the right edge.
  • The Raiders' run game leans on Ashton Jeanty — 15 carries, 59 yds a game (4.0 a carry), with his best work off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNO -2.1
Market lineNO -3
Sim total41
Market total42.5
NO by 2.1 (56% to win) Projected total 41 pts Tyler Shough ~269 pass yds (250+ 62%) Ashton Jeanty ~59 rush yds (70+ 32%) Chris Olave ~93 rec yds, 6.7 rec (70+ 66%)