LV @ NO Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LV Raiders
19
PROJECTION
LV 35 – NO 27
Week 3 50-sim average Sun 27 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
LV52%19 35
NO48%21 27
21
NO Saints
✗ RESULT LV by 8 model NO by 1.1, off by 9.1
✓ SPREAD LV +3 WIN line at publish NO -3
✗ TOTAL 62 pts OVER O/U 44, model 40 lean under

Projected Team Stats

LV
NO
52% Win Probability 48%
319 Total Yards 351
242 Passing Yards 285
77 Rushing Yards 66
2.0 Sacks 1.6
1.2 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

LV
PASS Kirk Cousins254 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty45 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tre Tucker6.1 rec, 81 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.1 rec, 49 yds, 0.5 TD
NO
PASS Tyler Shough289 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr.37 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Chris Olave7.0 rec, 105 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Devaughn Vele3.7 rec, 47 yds, 0.3 TD

Saints by 1.1

The sim sides with Saints: a 1.1-point edge and a 48% win rate over 50 runs (21-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Justin Reid (Saints) - winner: Justin Reid, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
  • Chris Olave (Saints) vs Eric Stokes (Raiders) - winner: Chris Olave, open on 60% of routes for 9.1/11.4, 90 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Saints may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 3.3 sacks a game — Nathan Shepherd (2.2 sacks, 0.0 pressures a game) out front.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Raiders — a 49% win rate, 3.9 sacks and 15.3 pressures a game — Maxx Crosby (3.1 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Chris Olave is the engine of the Saints' passing game — 90 yds a game on 60% separation.
  • Through the air it is Tre Tucker's show for the Raiders: 53 yds a game, open on 47% of routes.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Quincy Riley (Saints): 42% separation allowed, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Saints hand it to Travis Etienne Jr. early and often, 10 carries for 37 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge.
  • The Raiders hand it to Ashton Jeanty early and often, 14 carries for 45 yds a game at 3.1 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNO -1.1
Market lineNO -3
Sim total40
Market total44
NO by 1.1 (48% to win) Projected total 40 pts Tyler Shough ~289 pass yds (250+ 76%) Chris Olave ~105 rec yds, 7.0 rec (70+ 76%)